Asia Economics Update Who will be the next Vietnam? Vietnam has seen a surge in exports to the US in recent years and arguably emerged as the biggest winner of Trump’s first trade war with China. However, Vietnam’s huge bilateral trade surplus with the... 6th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan 2025 spring wage negotiations (Shunto) wage request With Japan’s trade unions requesting an even larger pay hike in this year’s spring wage negotiations (Shunto) than they did a year ago, we now expect the negotiations to result in a base pay hike of... 6th March 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Focus China's economic roadmap for 2025 The GDP target announced for 2025 suggests that policymakers are hoping to achieve steady growth this year, but we don’t think that the policy agenda set out today at the National People’s Congress... 5th March 2025 · 28 mins read
Commodities Update China NPC is no gamechanger for commodity markets Although industrial metals prices have risen following the National People’s Congress (NPC) in China, we still think that prices will fall over 2025 and 2026 given that the policies outlined do not go... 5th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily China’s NPC and the fate of its equity market We don’t see anything in the outcomes of China’s NPC meetings to abandon our upbeat near-term view on the country’s stock market. 5th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Is Indonesia taking a wrong turn under Prabowo? Prabowo Subianto came into office in Indonesia in October pledging to raise economic growth to 8%, up from around the 5% rate it has been stuck at recently. However, the policy changes he has... 5th March 2025 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response Initial thoughts on China’s NPC Chinese policymakers have stuck with an ambitious target for real GDP growth but have become more cautious on the outlook for nominal growth and inflation. And while they did deliver some increase in... 5th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the US bloc splintering? The events of the past two weeks have called into question whether the US is severing ties not just with adversaries such as China but also allies, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union... 4th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Update Japan entering Trump’s firing line Japanese firms will suffer some collateral damage from the 25% US tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico. And if Trump presses ahead with tariffs on imports from Japan, carmakers would be most... 4th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing pick-up likely to be short lived The small uptick in the EM manufacturing PMI in February appears in part to be a result of the front-running of US tariffs, and is unlikely to be sustained. For now, the surveys continue to point to... 3rd March 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Feb. 2025) The PMIs suggest that a combination of fiscal support and tariff front-running helped China’s economy regain some momentum in February. But growth still looks at risk of slowing this quarter, at least... 3rd March 2025 · 2 mins read
Event Japan Drop-In: The Shunto, the Bank of Japan and the inflation and policy outlook 1741939200 Will the Bank of Japan be doing a victory lap this year in its quest to get inflation sustainably to 2%?
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX Weekly: A closer look at Trump tariff risks and currencies The greenback has rebounded this week as market participants have started to take President Trump’s continued tariff threats a bit more seriously and risk sentiment has soured. Even so, we think that... 28th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The unravelling of US exceptionalism This week’s pull-back in the US stock market and the unravelling of US exceptionalism in equities since Donald Trump returned to the White House on 20th January have been driven by growing concerns... 28th February 2025 · 5 mins read
