Emerging Markets Economics Update Assessing fiscal risks from higher interest rates in EMs Higher bond yields will add to fiscal pressures in those EMs with particularly large public debt burdens and weak debt dynamics. Brazil, South Africa as well as Colombia and Mexico are the EMs from... 26th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Philippines Monetary Policy Announcement The central bank (BSP) in the Philippines today raised its main policy rate by 25 bps (to 6.50%) in an out-of-cycle interest rate decision. While we had expected an interest rate hike at the upcoming... 26th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Korea GDP (Q3) Economic growth in Korea was stronger than expected in Q3 but we think the economy is set to weaken in the near term as support from external demand fades while tight fiscal and monetary policy... 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Policy support underpins reacceleration Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth slowed in Q3. But the economy was regaining momentum at the end of the quarter, led by gains in the service sector. With stimulus still flowing... 25th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia election – what is at stake? Reforms introduced by President Joko Widodo (commonly known as Jokowi) should enable the economy to continue growing rapidly once he steps down next year. The key question as the election approaches... 24th October 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update New fiscal support needed to prevent end-year slump The additional fiscal support approved today is the intervention we had been expecting and that was needed to prevent an abrupt fiscal tightening in China in the closing weeks of the year. Fiscal... 24th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: How much of a threat are surging bond yields to Asia’s economies? 1698739200 In light of the Bank of Japan’s policy announcement this today, our Asia team hosted an online briefing all about the impact of rising bond yields on Asia’s economies and markets.
Asia Economics Weekly How will policymakers react to weaker currencies? A strong US dollar is a threat to countries with lots of foreign currency debt and/or inflation problems. If Asian currencies remain under downward pressure we expect policymakers to step up their... 20th October 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly GDP breakdown suggests service sector still struggling The official GDP figures show a marked acceleration in quarter-on-quarter growth in Q3. But a closer look at the data suggests that this may be a statistical mirage. We think that growth slowed last... 20th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update “One and done” in Indonesia In a surprise move, Bank Indonesia (BI) today hiked its main policy rate by 25bps (to 6.0%) in an attempt to support the currency. But there is a good chance this will be a case of “one and done”. Our... 19th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update First signs of a dovish shift at the Bank of Korea The Bank of Korea today left its policy rate unchanged (at 3.5%), and while Governor Rhee left open the possibility of further interest rate hikes, there are signs that some members of the central... 19th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM exports treading water Aggregate EM goods exports have struggled for momentum in recent months and, while there were more positive signs from some of the timely September trade data, we think that exports are likely to... 18th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily China’s economic momentum may help its struggling equities We think China’s improving economy may help stop the fall in the country’s stock markets, and see them outperform those of the US for a bit. 18th October 2023 · 4 mins read
