Asia Economics Focus Will the BRICs win the inflation battle? We expect inflation of 4% or below in China next year, but mounting core pressures mean that Russia is likely to suffer double-digit inflation for the rest of this decade. But the policy response may... 20th August 2008 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Will the BRICs win the inflation battle? We expect inflation of 4% or below in China next year, but mounting core pressures mean that Russia is likely to suffer double-digit inflation for the rest of this decade. But the policy response may... 20th August 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update South-East Asian interest rates close to a peak The recent fall in the prices of oil and other commodities strengthens our view that the present tightening cycle in South-East Asia will be a short one. We expect regional interest rates to peak in... 19th August 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update First Korean rate hike in 12 months also likely to be last We suspect that today’s 25bp rate hike from the Bank of Korea (BoK) will be a one-off move similar to the European Central Bank’s warning shot last month, rather than the first in a new tightening... 7th August 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Ambitious inflation targets suggest more tightening to come By taking tougher than expected action, today’s rate hikes provide welcome reassurance that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is serious about tackling rising prices and will help keep inflation... 29th July 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Cautious optimism after Indian coalition wins “trust” vote Today’s narrow confidence vote win, by 275 to 256 votes, gives a much needed boost of political capital to India’s beleaguered Indian National Congress (INC) party. We are cautiously optimistic that... 22nd July 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines’ 50bp rate hike unlikely to be replicated elsewhere The decision by the Philippines’ central bank to raise the benchmark interest rate by a larger-thanexpected 50bp to 5.75% should not be taken as a signal that other Asian central banks are about to... 17th July 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thai rate hike the first of a brief tightening cycle Thailand’s decision to raise interest rates today (by 25bps to 3.5%) was the first in more than two years. However, growing downside risks to growth, despite the recently announced fiscal stimulus... 16th July 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's industrial sector slowing to a crawl The slowdown in India’s industrial sector growth to 3.8% y/y in May (from a revised 6.2% y/y in April) was worse than even we had expected. Recent monetary tightening suggests that the outlook for the... 11th July 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea turns to forex intervention to fight inflation The Bank of Korea (BoK) held official rates at 5.00% today, as widely expected. The accompanying statement highlighted the growing dilemma facing the BoK. But successful interventions to prop up the... 10th July 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack India’s aggressive tightening yet to impress markets (Jul 08) The Reserve Bank of India can be forgiven for having initially taken a less hawkish stance towards inflation. GDP growth was thought to be slowing more quickly than revised data indicate. And few had... 9th July 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Next rate move in Australia will be a cut We think that Australian interest rates will be cut by the end of this year and eventually fall to 6% (from 7.25%) by the end of 2009. In contrast, the markets are currently pricing in a 75% chance... 2nd July 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India tries to get ahead of the curve with more rate hikes The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) today announced a 50bp hike in the repurchase rate, to 8.5%, and plans for two 25bp hikes in the cash reserve ratio next month, taking it to 8.75%. The move is an... 24th June 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Asia - Korea bucks the trend as Asia turns hawkish (Jun 08) Recent actions by several Asian countries to limit the cost of fuel subsidies highlight the stresses that high oil prices are causing in emerging economies. India, Indonesia and Malaysia (as well as... 9th June 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: more tightening in the pipeline Indonesia’s latest round of fuel price hikes was designed to safeguard fiscal sustainability and is therefore positive in the long run. However, a worsening near-term inflation outlook is likely to... 28th May 2008 · 1 min read
