Asia Economics Update Focus turns to timing the first rate hike in Indonesia Bank Indonesia cut its key overnight lending rate by 25bps to 6.5% today as we and the consensus expected. While the accompanying statement leaves the door open for further cuts we think that rates... 5th August 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian rates have bottomed out The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% today as expected. The accompanying statement struck a more hawkish note than previous releases and markets are pricing in a... 4th August 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand Q2 GDP looks set for solid rebound The improvement in economic activity in June confirms that Thai GDP rebounded in Q2, while leading indicators suggest Q3 has started on a strong footing. 31st July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India turns its mind to inflation risks India’s central bank is increasingly concerned about inflation risks, raising the likelihood that it will hike interest rates before the end of the year. 28th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update The Philippines is leaving its past behind Yesterday’s debt rating upgrade from Moody’s was catch-up and long overdue but does at least acknowledge the increased resilience of the Philippine economy to global shocks and its likely higher long... 24th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack GDP rebound to fade (Jul 09) The rest of Asia is likely to follow Singapore in showing Q2 GDP significantly improved on Q1. Economic recovery is likely to be sustained in all countries into 2010 but our forecast of only a slow... 16th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand to stay on hold throughout 2010 The Bank of Thailand (BoT) today left its overnight rate on hold at 1.25%. Its statement was neutral, but Thai markets are still pricing in policy rate hikes over the next year. We expect rates to... 15th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore is back but recovery to fade Asia’s first Q2 GDP release showed Singapore surged out of recession, and is likely to be followed soon by stronger GDP data from elsewhere in the region. Singapore’s recovery should continue but... 14th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus India set to come back strongly India’s 2008-09 slowdown seems to have been a short pause rather than anything more serious. The economy is picking up again and a long period of sustained high GDP growth looks likely. Current... 10th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea unlikely to raise rates soon The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its policy rate unchanged today amid signs that the domestic economy is recovering. Some commentators are expecting rate hikes soon, but we believe the significant... 9th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: Election result looks good for growth President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) almost certainly has done enough to avoid a September run-off in Indonesia’s presidential elections. The result is good for Indonesia’s economy and markets... 9th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian policy rates set to remain low The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its policy rate unchanged today while retaining a slight easing bias. Recent domestic data have been better than expected, but we forecast renewed... 7th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s budget: Going for growth, cautious on reform India’s Federal Budget announced today focused on keeping GDP growth on its improving track. The budget deficit and debt issuance target are at the high end of market expectations. 6th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Korean recovery to follow the West, not Asia While Korea is in much better shape to weather the 2008-09 global crisis than was the case during the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-98, weak external demand and high domestic household indebtedness... 2nd July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Chinese demand no panacea for Taiwan Taiwanese interest rates have probably bottomed out. But despite optimism about improving economic relations with China, weaknesses closer to home are likely to keep rates at their current level for a... 25th June 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Recovery underway but likely to be subpar (Jun 09) The recovery in exports has continued and there are now signs that domestic demand is bottoming out too given that the deterioration in labour markets in most places has been, and should stay, mild... 18th June 2009 · 1 min read
