Asia Economics Update Indonesia on track to lift rates around mid-year Bank Indonesia (BI) left rates at 6.5% today, as expected. The economic upswing will almost certainly stay strong but bank credit growth is still weaker than the authorities would like and annual... 6th April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Australia to pause in April before hiking in May Moving early has given the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) the flexibility to vary the pace of monetary tightening. Further rate hikes are inevitable but labour market and retail sales data have been... 5th April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian PMIs still point to rapid growth, but for how long? The March manufacturing PMIs for emerging Asia (ex-China) were generally weaker but still signal that exports and industry will keep improving in coming months. Nevertheless, global conditions will... 1st April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia aims to improve investment conditions Malaysia’s New Economic Model (NEM), published today, is a positive step toward promoting longterm economic reform. Boosting foreign investment, lifting education standards and reducing the role of... 30th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam growth holds strong but inflation is the problem Vietnam is the first Asian country to report GDP data and the latest figures, released today, showed that the economy expanded 5.8% y/y in Q1. The economic upswing will probably strengthen during the... 30th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan set to stay on prolonged hold The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), as expected, left its policy rate unchanged at 12.50% over the weekend. We forecast that rates will stay on hold for the rest of 2010. The economic upswing should... 27th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam moving too slowly The central bank of Vietnam (SBV) today announced that its key policy rate will stay unchanged at 8.0% during April. This is a dangerous strategy. Inflation has already hit 9.5% y/y and will probably... 25th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan rates on hold until June at least Taiwan’s central bank left interest rates on hold today, as expected. The economy has recovered very strongly, but inflation remains a distant threat. As a result, rates are likely to remain at their... 25th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand political risks contained, but for how long? The government will probably continue to hold the upper hand in Thailand’s street protests and a compromise is increasingly likely which will involve early elections. But a new vote may not end the... 22nd March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Upswing to survive policy tightening comfortably (Mar 10) The emerging Asia economies have picked up speed, inflation has increased, and more central banks have indicated that monetary policy needs to be tightened. By the end of April we expect that rates... 18th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India will hike policy rates soon The surge in February wholesale prices, published today, means that it is a near-certainty that India will raise policy rates by at least 50bps at the next monetary policy review on 20th April. The... 15th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines inching closer to a first policy rate hike The Philippine central bank (BSP) left its key policy rate unchanged at today’s meeting, as expected, but continued to unwind some of the other support measures which are no longer needed. Politics... 11th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Politics will stay in the way of Korea rate hikes The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its policy rate at 2.00% today, as expected. BoK Governor Lee’s term ends this month and his replacement is likely to be sympathetic to the government view that monetary... 11th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand still on track for mid-year hike The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) as expected left its cash rate unchanged at 2.5% overnight and, crucially, retained its commitment to start lifting rates from around the middle of 2010. The... 11th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand moves closer to the exit The Thai policy rate was left unchanged at 1.25% today, as expected. The Bank of Thailand (BoT) acknowledged that the economic momentum built up at the end of last year has carried forward into 2010... 10th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia set for a mild monetary tightening Bank Negara (BNM) raised the overnight policy rate by 25bps to 2.25% at today’s meeting. This was contrary to the consensus expectation but in line with our forecast. Economic growth has recently... 4th March 2010 · 1 min read
