Asia Economics Update Vietnam still likely to raise rates again soon The central bank of Vietnam (SBV) yesterday, as expected, announced that its key policy rate will stay unchanged at 8.0% during June. Nevertheless, the cash rate looks too low for an economy that will... 1st June 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India will keep powering forward Q1 GDP data published today were strong. Private sector spending will probably ensure that the economy continues to expand at an 8-9% pace in coming quarters, even as stimulatory policies are... 31st May 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation is India's biggest threat It will probably be India’s turn on Monday to report another spectacularly strong Q1 GDP gain – we think that the economy expanded by 9.5% y/y. There is little doubt that the upswing will continue and... 31st May 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Asia to keep going its own way (Q2 10) We expect the world recovery will lose momentum in 2010-11 but do not anticipate that the recent turmoil in the markets will derail the global upswing. The implication for Asia is that the regional... 27th May 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update The Philippines’ strong start to 2010 is likely to last Today it was the turn of the Philippines to publish impressive Q1 GDP data. Base effects played a part but q/q growth was rapid too. The economic recovery is on solid foundations and will stay strong... 27th May 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan unlikely to cut rates in 2010 The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) today, as expected, left its policy rate unchanged at 12.50%. We forecast that rates will be kept on hold into 2011. The economic upswing should continue but inflation... 24th May 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand started 2010 well but what happens from here? Q1 GDP in Thailand, published today, beat expectations but the most significant announcement in recent days was one from the Finance Minister, who stated that the government was “highly unlikely” to... 24th May 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam outlook continues to improve The central bank in Vietnam will set interest rates for June over the next few days and will probably keep the base rate unchanged at 8.00%, rather than move rates up. The easing of credit conditions... 24th May 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand’s Budget moving in the right direction Today’s Budget in New Zealand aims to boost savings and business spending, whilst pulling back consumption and investment in the property market. The target is to eliminate the budget deficit by 2015... 20th May 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan on top of the world, but not for long Taiwan’s economy will be one of the world’s best performers in 2010, but underlying structural problems will increasingly weigh on growth as the year goes on. 20th May 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Where does Thailand go from here? Political unrest will continue in Thailand but we suspect that the level of instability will subside to where it was in 2006-09 when the economy was still able to perform reasonably well. We still... 20th May 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India will probably hike rates again in June Data from India released late last week showed inflation pressures remain high while the economic upswing has stayed strong. Further monetary tightening is only a matter of time and we expect that... 17th May 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Worst case fear for Thailand diminishing The risk that the political instability is prolonged, and spreads beyond a small area of Bangkok, will stay very high for a while. Nevertheless, we continue to expect that the latest crisis will be... 17th May 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly New Zealand’s budget to focus on tax reform A hike in the GST, and reforms designed to lift investment, will be the centrepiece of this week’s New Zealand budget. The changes overall are likely to be fiscally neutral in 2010-11 to help protect... 17th May 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia set for sustained but gradual tightening Bank Negara (BNM) today raised the overnight policy rate by 25bp to 2.5%, as expected, while the double-digit surge in GDP in Q1 has been confirmed. The economic upswing looks set to remain strong and... 13th May 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea laying ground work for tightening The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its policy rate at 2.0% today, as expected. The economy is picking up strongly and inflation pressures are rising. However, BoK Governor Kim is sympathetic to the... 12th May 2010 · 1 min read
