Asia Rapid Response Taiwan GDP (Q3, first estimate) Taiwan’s economy rebounded in Q3, and we expect GDP growth to remain fairly strong over the coming quarters, helped by robust export demand. 31st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ opens door to another rate hike BoJ Governor Ueda sounded more optimistic today and we’re sticking to our forecast of another rate hike at the Bank’s next meeting in December, though we don’t expect further tightening in 2025. 31st October 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Oct. 2024) The PMIs have overstated the weakness in China’s economy during the past year. But they still provide some sense of the direction of travel. The good news is that the surveys point to an improvement... 31st October 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Sep. 24) 30th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Oct. 2024) Financial vulnerabilities have declined further across EMs. Our currency crisis risk indicator was at yet another multi-year low in Q3 and sovereign debt risks have eased across large parts of Africa... 30th October 2024 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Demand from EMs would help cushion Trump tariffs EMs are playing a growing role as substitute markets for Chinese exporters that face rising trade barriers in DMs. A second trade war with a re-elected President Trump would only accelerate that shift... 30th October 2024 · 7 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Financial sector drives a strong expansion Our China Activity Proxy suggests that the economy’s growth picked up in September, bringing Q3 growth in-line with official estimates. While this acceleration was broad-based across sectors, the main... 29th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct. 2024) Our measure of capital outflows from EMs has jumped to its highest level since July 2022 amid the recent surge in US Treasury yields and strengthening of the dollar. If Donald Trump wins the US... 29th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Asia Chart Pack (October 2024) Our Asia Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. With GDP growth set to struggle and inflation to remain low, central banks are likely to continue to... 29th October 2024 · 0 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea dodges recession (just), Sri Lanka in deflation The Bank of Korea pushed back strongly against the prospect of further cuts in the near term when it lowered interest rates earlier this month. But the weakness of the Q3 GDP figures underlines that... 25th October 2024 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Date set for fiscal reveal, stock frenzy boosting GDP The details of a widely anticipated fiscal stimulus package are expected to be revealed at the NPC Standing Committee’s next meeting, which has just been scheduled for 4th to 8th November. This... 25th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily How big of a threat is Trump to Asian currencies? We suspect Asian currencies would underperform under a Trump presidency, even if they don’t seem to have been affected worse than others by the apparent rise in his chances of winning lately. 25th October 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly A shift in India’s geopolitical alignment? It might be tempting to view recent developments - including a breakthrough in talks with China on the disputed Himalayan border and the diplomatic spat with Canada - as signalling that India is... 25th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Election nailbiter Polls suggest that Japan’s ruling party, the LDP, could lose its Lower House majority on Sunday for the first time since its brief stint out of power ended in 2012. As long as it was still able to... 25th October 2024 · 5 mins read
