Asia Economics Update Australia’s central bank to cut again in February The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lowered its cash rate by 25bp to 4.25% today. We see global growth slowing to a below-trend pace in 2012, which in turn should bring more policy loosening in... 6th December 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam's central bank risks losing its credibility The central bank in Vietnam (SBV) is coming under pressure from the government to cut interest rates amid signs of slowing economic growth. However, with inflation at just under 20% y/y in November... 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asian currencies to remain undervalued Most Asian currencies looked weak even before the falls of the past few months. We expect them to fall further over the coming year as the euro-zone crisis intensifies. And even when global risk... 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What would a euro-zone break-up mean for Asian markets? Following changes to our assumption about the timing of an EMU break-up, we have revised down our forecasts for emerging Asia’s currency and equity markets for next year. However, we see both... 2nd December 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs support case for policy loosening Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) released today for India, Korea, Taiwan and Australia confirm that manufacturing in these countries is weak. With fears for growth rising and inflation trending... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand's central bank to cut further The Bank of Thailand (BoT) lowered its policy rate by 25bp to 3.25% today in a bid to lift confidence and activity following recent floods. The economy is almost certain to contract in Q4 and weak... 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian economy slows, but worse is yet to come GDP figures released today confirm that India’s economy slowed sharply in the third quarter of this year, even before the latest drop in business surveys and exports. With tight monetary policy... 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Weak Philippines’ growth opens the door to rate cuts The Philippines reported weak Q3 GDP data today on the back of a slump in exports. Growth is likely to remain sluggish in the coming quarters. The poor state of the economy means the central bank is... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How well will domestic demand hold up? Hopes that Asia had de-coupled from the rest of the world were dashed during the 2008-09 global crisis, as domestic demand fell almost as sharply as exports. However, there are good reasons to expect... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Is emerging Asia experiencing a property price bubble? Although Asia as a whole is not experiencing a property price bubble, we believe that prices in Hong Kong and Taipei are now in bubble territory. There is a growing risk of a sharp correction in these... 25th November 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What next for the Indian rupee? The fall in the rupee is mainly a result of global factors and is likely to be reversed when global sentiment improves. However, with the euro crisis set to drag on, that may be several months away. 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand set to loosen monetary policy Thailand’s Q3 GDP data show that the economy was struggling even before the flood situation worsened in late October. With activity weak, confidence flagging and fears for the global economy... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How bad is Vietnam’s fiscal position? Vietnam’s fiscal position has deteriorated in recent years. Debt levels would be even higher if contingent liabilities of the banking sector and state-owned enterprises are included. The biggest risk... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Recent free-trade initiatives are over-hyped The goal of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) of establishing a fully-integrated economic community by 2015, with complete free flow of goods, services and investment, is likely to... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Growth falters in Q3 With the exception of Indonesia, Q3 GDP figures published across emerging Asia so far have been weak. Exports have been hit by low demand from the West, and growing fears for the global outlook are... 17th November 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rising downside risks to growth in India Wholesale price data for October, released today, suggest India’s inflation rate is still not at a turning point. Meanwhile, recent evidence shows economic activity has slowed more steeply than... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
