Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s policy rate likely to be cut this year Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) kept its overnight rate at 3.0% today, as was widely anticipated. Looking ahead, we think that Malaysia’s exports will struggle and that inflation is likely to fall further... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan back in recession Taiwan’s economy contracted for a second successive quarter at the end of 2011 due not only to weak exports but to lacklustre domestic demand too. The central bank is soon likely to join the regional... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Weak growth to continue in the Philippines The Philippines recorded another quarter of weak growth in Q4 due to continued weak export demand. Although the resilience of domestic demand is encouraging, sluggish global demand is likely to weigh... 30th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How long will the rebound in Asian currencies last? Most Asian currencies have risen strongly so far this year amid a recovery in global risk appetite. However, the rebound is unlikely to last long. We are of the opinion that the euro-zone will slip... 30th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s weak growth to bring rate cuts soon Today’s Q4 GDP data from Korea show that the economy ended 2011 on a very weak note. Growth is likely to be sluggish at best over the next few quarters amid soft global demand, while Korea’s inflation... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand’s cash rate to stay low in 2013 The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its policy rate at 2.5% today, as was widely anticipated. Most analysts expect policy to be tightened significantly over the next two years. In contrast, we... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth prospects - where we differ from consensus As the IMF released its latest forecasts yesterday and we published our Global Economic Outlook last week, this seems a good time to take stock of how our forecasts compare with others. Overall... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand likely to cut further The Bank of Thailand (BoT) lowered its policy rate by 25bp to 3.0% today, as expected. Thailand’s economy has been hit hard by floods and weak global demand is likely to limit the rebound in... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Market implications of an EMU break-up Risky asset markets have generally made a bright start to 2012. But our central scenario envisages a break-up of EMU this year initially involving Greece’s departure, an outcome that would presumably... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India cautious on rate cuts The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its cash reserve requirement today but left the repo rate on hold. The hawkish tone of the policy statement suggests that, although rate cuts are surely coming... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Asia's equities outperform in early 2012 Emerging Asia’s equities have risen by more than the global average so far this year, but we do not expect the outperformance to last. Stock markets in Asia typically underperform developed markets... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation has further to fall Inflation rose sharply in 2011 as a whole relative to 2010 across the region. However, we expect below-trend growth and lower commodity prices to pull down inflation significantly this year. With... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More policy loosening to come in the Philippines The Philippines’ central bank (BSP) cut its overnight rate by 25bp to 4.25% today, as expected. Exports have slumped and are unlikely to pick up much this year, while inflation is set to fall towards... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Farewell to the euro The euro-zone is slipping into a recession which we expect to be deep and prolonged and to result in the break-up of the single currency area. This will be a major drag on other European economies... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s headline inflation falls but rate cut unlikely before March Data released today show a big drop in headline inflation, to 7.5% y/y in December. But the key measure of core inflation fell only slightly. Consequently, the Reserve Bank of India is likely to wait... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea to cut by mid-year The Bank of Korea (BoK) has become increasingly worried about the growth outlook, but lingering inflation concerns are dissuading the central bank from loosening policy. We believe that inflation is... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
