Asia Economics Update Cuts to fuel subsidies mean no more rate cuts in Indonesia Having cut interest rates by a cumulative 100bp over the past six months, Bank Indonesia (BI) left rates on hold today, as expected. With upcoming cuts to fuel price subsidies likely to push inflation... 8th March 2012 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Sustained fall in inflation underway Inflation will climb further in most major economies over the coming months, reflecting both higher energy prices and higher food prices. The peaks should still be lower than those in 2008 as long as... 7th March 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia is well-placed to continue to outperform Today’s GDP data show that Australia’s economy grew by less than expected in Q4. Nonetheless, Australia outpaced the US, euro-zone and UK over 2011 as a whole. While we expect the global economy to... 7th March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update India’s ban unlikely to prevent further falls in cotton prices The spot price of the benchmark Memphis cotton price have jumped more than 5% to around 87 cents per lb after India, the world’s second largest producer and exporter of cotton, banned exports of the... 6th March 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rates cut in Vietnam to help struggling banking sector The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) today announced that it would be reducing its key policy rate “over the next few days”. The cut comes after sharp falls in inflation over the past six months and is... 6th March 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Policymakers in wait-and-see mode The trend in Asia has been towards loosening policy recently. However, signs of stronger global growth and the pick-up in oil prices are likely to persuade central banks across the region to keep... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update February PMIs suggest industrial slowdown has bottomed out February PMIs for Asia were positive, boosting hopes that the region’s industrial sector is now on the road to recovery. However, with global growth likely to disappoint this year, any rebound in... 2nd March 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Weak growth prompts further rate cut in the Philippines The Philippines central bank (BSP) cut its policy rate by a further 25bp to 4.0% today, taking the overnight rate back to the trough of the previous cycle. Lower interest rates are needed to support... 1st March 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s growth rate slows, recovery likely to be gradual Data published today reveal a further drop in India’s GDP growth in the last quarter of 2011. Moreover investment has stalled, setting back hopes that trend growth will rise towards Chinese levels. 29th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Capital inflows are a threat to Asia The return of global risk appetite has helped to push up asset prices across Asia. If we are correct that the crisis in the euro-zone will worsen again later this year, global risk appetite is likely... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How vulnerable is Asia to high oil prices? Recent oil price increases are not a big threat to emerging Asia. The inflationary impact will be small even if prices remain at current levels. Asian economies are relatively oil-dependent but their... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Rate cuts are coming in Vietnam Falling inflation gives the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) scope to cut interest rates to support growth. However, large cuts could end up destabilising the fragile economy. The SBV will need to be... 27th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Risks to growth still skewed to the downside Almost all countries in emerging Asia have now released their Q4 GDP figures. Growth slowed across most of the region, mainly due to weakness in external demand. The recent improvement in the US, a... 23rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus How would emerging Asia cope with a euro break-up? The major impact of euro-zone break-up on emerging Asia would come from the resulting weakness of export demand. If the break-up was relatively smooth and the US continued to grow, as we think is... 23rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How bad were the Q4 GDP data for emerging Asia? Economic growth in the final quarter of last year was disappointing for most economies in emerging Asia. Although risks to growth are generally on the downside, a closer look at Q4 GDP data suggests... 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s weak economy to bring more rate cuts Today’s Q4 GDP data show that, due to widespread floods, Thailand’s economy suffered a bigger quarterly contraction in late-2011 than it did in either the 2008-09 global crisis or the Asian Financial... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
