Asia Economics Update Faster growth reduces the need for rate cuts in Korea Data released today show that Korea’s economy picked up in Q2 on the back of stronger consumption and investment. Although low inflation means policymakers still have scope to cut interest rates, with... 25th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand rates to remain low Despite worries that the housing market may be showing signs of overheating, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.5% today. We expect the cash rate to remain on... 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation turns around, but big pick-up unlikely Emerging market inflation rose last month, but the combination of soft core price pressures and falling global food price inflation means that any further increases are likely to be limited. 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Bottoming out? Growth in Emerging Asia, which has slowed sharply since the start of the year, may have bottomed out. According to our GDP Tracker, which uses monthly data for output and expenditure, regional GDP... 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What will a tapering of QE3 mean for EM interest rates? The sell-off in EM currencies that has followed the Fed’s signal that it may start to taper its asset purchases under QE3 has led central banks in India, Indonesia and now Turkey to hike interest... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia’s export weakness to continue Exports from Emerging Asia remain lacklustre and continue to hold back the region’s growth. As this Weekly explains, a strong and sustained export recovery is unlikely anytime soon. 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Currency sell-off unlikely to prompt a wave of rate hikes Lingering fears over the impact of a tapering of asset purchases by the US Fed have seen emerging market currencies continue to weaken over the past month – countries with current account deficits... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Asia’s diverging growth prospects China’s Q2 GDP data underline the extent to which Asia’s economic landscape has shifted. We expect growth in China to continue to slow over the next couple of years. For India, the worst of the... 17th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s liquidity measures push policy rate cuts off the table The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) efforts to tighten liquidity have given a bounce to the rupee today. But greater currency stability, even if sustained, will come at the cost of a further economic... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market growth: the long view We think that the non-BRIC Emerging Markets (EMs) will play a more important role than the BRICs in driving a gradual acceleration of global GDP growth over the next 2-3 years. Within the EM world... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's rising inflation makes near-term rate cut even less likely Today’s slight increase in India's wholesale price inflation will not have greatly alarmed policymakers, but the increase in consumer price inflation is a bigger worry. The chances of the Reserve Bank... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore’s strong Q2 is not the start of a robust recovery Singapore’s economy posted its strongest gain in two years in Q2. We are raising our full-yearforecast for 2013 but, as this Weekly explains, last quarter’s good performance will not be thestart of a... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s rice subsidy sustainable Thailand’s government can afford to maintain its rice subsidy scheme indefinitely, as long as GDP growth holds up and rice prices do not collapse. However, doing so would put at risk the goal of... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia to wait until 2014 before hiking rates Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% at its meeting today. We think rates will remain on hold until early 2014, when we have pencilled in a hike. 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further aggressive rate hikes in Indonesia unlikely Bank Indonesia (BI) today hiked both its main policy rate and the Fasbi rate by 50bp amid concerns about the currency and the outlook for inflation. Consumer price inflation is likely to rise as high... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exporters remain under pressure The latest batch of EM trade data suggests that exporters continue to struggle in the face of slowing demand from their major global trade partners. Moreover, there isn’t much in the forward-looking... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
