Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (March 2024) GDP growth will come in below consensus in most EMs this year, with the notable exceptions of India and Taiwan. Although stubborn wage growth means the pace of disinflation is likely to slow from here... 22nd March 2024 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Political risk in Vietnam; SBP’s hawkish hold One of Vietnam’s key appeals to foreign investors is its political stability relative to other low-income countries in the region. Given this, the unexplained ousting of President Vo Van Thuong of... 22nd March 2024 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan: surprise hike unlikely to be followed by further tightening Despite the booming economy, inflationary pressures in Taiwan are likely to remain subdued. Accordingly, we think today’s unexpected rate hike by the central bank (CBC) will prove to be a case of one... 21st March 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM financial risk – An early warning system The past few years have sharpened investors’ focus on assessing risks and vulnerabilities across the EM world. We have developed a comprehensive suite of indicators to identify early signs of a... 20th March 2024 · 17 mins read
Event Drop-In: China equities outlook – Valuations, earnings, fracturing 1712217600 It's been a tough few years for China's stock market, which has been, at times, one of the worst performers in the world.
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar. 2024) Capital inflows into EMs have picked up in recent weeks on the back of an improvement in risk appetite. This may set the tone for the rest of the year, particularly once the Fed begins to cut interest... 18th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Would Vietnam win a second trade war? Donald Trump’s threat to impose a blanket 10% tariff on all US imports would hit Vietnam hard. But provided they were accompanied by a 60% tariff on all imports from China (as Trump has also threated)... 18th March 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Jan. & Feb. 2024) China’s economy continued to show some improvement at the start of the year thanks to strength in exports and fiscal stimulus, even as consumer spending made little headway. We expect the recovery to... 18th March 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Equipment investment push may aggravate imbalances Chinese policymakers want firms to increase equipment investment by 25% over the coming four years. If achieved, that would provide a temporary boost to domestic demand and GDP growth. But the lasting... 15th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan: strong growth, but falling inflation Despite the booming economy, inflation in Taiwan has been falling back in recent months. Accordingly, we expect the central bank (CBC) to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Thursday. 15th March 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM growth divergence set to continue We expect the divergence in growth prospects observed in EM Q4 GDP data to be a running theme over the next couple of quarters too. Specifically, we think that some of last year’s outperformers... 14th March 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb. 2024) CPI inflation turned positive last month for the first time since September, thanks to temporary factors such as the volatility in food and tourism prices around Lunar New Year. But persistent... 11th March 2024 · 2 mins read
