Asia Economics Update Taiwan’s growth likely to disappoint consensus Today’s GDP data from Taiwan show that the economy returned to y/y growth in Q3. However, we think growth is unlikely to pick up strongly in the coming quarters. Given our view that the global economy... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India to continue resisting rate cut pressure The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its key policy rate unchanged today in the face of government pressure on it to cut. With inflation likely to remain high, we suspect the RBI will continue to... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Market too hawkish on most EM interest rates in 2013 We expect relatively weak economic growth to keep interest rates in most emerging markets lower than the market currently anticipates next year. The key exceptions are India, where we suspect that... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Should we worry about Asia's current account trends? Most Asian economies have either seen their current account surpluses decline or their deficits increase in recent quarters, which has raised fears that the region is vulnerable to a balance of... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Remittances to emerging markets to remain resilient Despite our forecast that global growth will continue to disappoint over the next couple of years, we expect remittances to most emerging markets will remain resilient. This will help drive growth in... 26th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation set to edge up There are tentative signs that the slowdown in Emerging Market (EM) inflation seen over the past year has bottomed out. We expect EM inflation to quicken over the next six months, mainly due to faster... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More rate cuts likely in the Philippines next year The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) cut its key policy rate by 25bp today, as expected. The benign outlook for inflation and worries over growth prospects were the main factors behind the... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Have Asia’s exports turned a corner? The September trade data reported so far in Asia were generally much better than the consensus had expected. Nonetheless, we think a sustained rebound in Asia’s exports is unlikely anytime soon. 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Central banks step up policy loosening Over the past month, central banks in South Korea, Thailand, Australia and Pakistan have all cut their policy rates. The moves come in response to continued weakness in exports, which has caused GDP... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Growth subdued, but stabilising Emerging market GDP appears to have grown by around 4.5% y/y in Q3 – broadly the same rate as in Q2, but well down on the 8% y/y growth rates seen in 2010. At a regional level, Emerging Asia has... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will higher food prices drive up EM inflation? Headline inflation is set to pick up across most of the emerging world over the next six months, in the wake of global food price increases earlier this year. However, the impact should be short-lived... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand likely to loosen monetary policy again The Bank of Thailand (BoT) cut its repo rate by 25bp to 2.75% today. We think persistent global weakness will prompt the central bank to loosen its policy settings further. 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How reliant are EM governments on high commodity prices? A sharp decline in commodity prices would cause the public finances to deteriorate in many emerging market countries, with the loss of revenues greatest in the Middle East and parts of Africa. However... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian inflation pushed up by diesel price hike The increase in India’s headline inflation rate, to 7.8% in September, reinforces our view that the central bank is unlikely to cut interest rates again this year. 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore to loosen monetary policy next year The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) left its policy settings unchanged on Friday, as inflation fears outweighed concerns over growth. However, we think inflation worries will dissipate over the... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More policy stimulus on the way in Korea The Bank of Korea (BoK) cut its policy rate by 25bp to 2.75% today, as expected. Growth has slowed sharply and is unlikely to rebound strongly anytime soon. With inflation set to remain low, there is... 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
