Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s rate hike around the corner Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% today as expected, but with the economy gradually gaining a firmer footing, a 25bp rate hike is unlikely to be far away. 6th March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia’s economy set to slow in 2014 GDP growth in Australia accelerated in the final quarter of last year. Looking ahead, we expect the economy to lose momentum over the coming quarters, as the boom in mining investment continues to... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian rates to stay on hold for now The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its cash rate at 2.5% today, as expected. For now, policy loosening looks to be off the agenda, but we suspect that a rate cut will be needed later in the year... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update PMIs point to gradual and uneven recovery The February PMIs for Emerging Asia point to a slight deterioration in the region's manufacturing conditions. The pullback in the new orders component suggests Asia's manufacturing recovery is likely... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Export recovery to support growth in Asia GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2013 showed that regional growth was unchanged from Q3. Improving prospects for exports bode well for the outlook, but domestic demand needs to cool in some... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s road to recovery to remain bumpy Economic growth in India dipped in the final quarter of 2013, having picked up in Q3. Looking ahead,we continue to expect the economic recovery to remain slow and uneven. 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Asia slows as Emerging Europe recovers EM GDP growth has remained stable at around 4.5% y/y in recent months, but this has masked a shift in the fortunes for individual regions. Emerging Europe appears to be experiencing a relatively... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian currencies rebound, rupiah leads the way Following sharp falls in January, Asian currencies and equity markets have rebounded over the past month. Meanwhile, government bond yields have been broadly flat. 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation remains subdued despite currency weakness In aggreate terms, there is little sign that currency weakness is leading to higher emerging market (EM) inflation. With few signs of a build-up in domestic price pressures either, we expect EM... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia making progress in escaping middle income trap Malaysia has made decent progress in its bid to transition to high-income status by 2020. However, further reforms to enhance economic competitiveness are crucial to sustaining strong growth. 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Political upheaval in Thailand to weigh on rice prices The potential end of the controversial support scheme for rice farmers in Thailand this week should add to the downward pressure on rice prices over the next few years. In particular, how the... 26th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Some calm returns after January’s exodus In January, net selling of emerging market securities by global ETFs and mutual funds was larger than in any month since last June according to EPFR Global. But timelier daily data from six stock... 26th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Interest rates to stay lower than consensus expects Asian central banks have, for the most part, left interest rates on hold recently, with India the only major central bank in the region to adjust monetary policy over the past month. India raised... 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korean government growth target unlikely to be met President Park Geun-hye’s plans to raise trend growth to 4% by 2017 are unlikely to succeed. In fact, we see trend growth in Korea slowing to around 2% over the next decade. 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly India and Indonesia – not so fragile? After coming through the latest bout of market turmoil with surprising resilience, it could be time for Indonesia and India to hand in their membership of the so-called ”Fragile Five”. Importantly... 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore budget looks to the long term Today’s budget for the coming fiscal year targets a small surplus, which comes as no surprise given the reasonably upbeat short-term outlook for the economy and lingering concerns over inflation. But... 21st February 2014 · 1 min read
