Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s strong GDP growth raises scope for rate hikes Malaysia’s growth picked up strongly in the first quarter of 2014, reinforcing our view that the central bank (BNM) is likely to begin raising its policy rate at its next meeting in July. Although... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s wholesale inflation eases, but RBI unlikely to budge India’s wholesale price inflation dipped unexpectedly last month, but this is unlikely to persuade the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to abandon its hawkish stance on monetary policy any time soon. 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will India really deliver equity-friendly reforms? The prospect of a new government delivering economic reform in India has provided a substantial boost to the country’s stock market. Although we are also optimistic that a new government will make... 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Tight fiscal policy another reason to expect Australian slowdown Australia's budget included a range of measures to rein in the fiscal deficit. The shift to tighter fiscal policy comes at a time when the economy is growing below trend and is facing a sharp fall in... 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s next government forced to build on sluggish economy As voting in India’s general election draws to a close today, another batch of disappointing data has underlined the economic challenges that will face the new government. 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is the Korean won overvalued? Fears that a strong won will undermine Korea’s export competitiveness look overdone. If anything, the won looks slightly undervalued, while prospects for the country’s exporters are better than they... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Are expectations too high for Modi’s India? All eyes will be on India next week as its much-talked-about election comes to an end. Opinion polls have consistently suggested that the opposition BJP party, which has nominated Narendra Modi as its... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Dollar-denominated bond yields to drift up this year The “stripped” spread of the JP Morgan EMBI+ Index has dropped below 300 basis points for the first time in about a year. However, we forecast the spread to rebound as less accommodative US monetary... 9th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rates in Korea to remain on hold until 2015 With the economic recovery gaining momentum, but inflationary pressures still low, the Bank of Korea’s (BoK) decision to keep interest rates on hold came as no surprise. We think interest rates will... 9th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Weakness of EM exports not just a result of China distortions Emerging market (EM) exports continued to fall in March. Admittedly, this can in part be explained by distortions in the Chinese data, which appear to have persisted in April too. However, the bigger... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia on the verge of tightening monetary policy Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) opted to keep its policy rate at 3.0% today, but the case for monetary tightening is building, and we think BNM could hike rates as early as its next meeting in July. 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further tightening likely in the Philippines The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left interest rates on hold today but hiked the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by a further 100 basis points, as it looks to reduce rising risks in the... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update El Niño-related food inflation worries in India premature India's high dependence on rainfall for crop production makes it particularly vulnerable to the dry El Niño weather conditions that many weather forecasters expect this year. Concerns over the... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Drop in PMIs dashes hopes for sustained recovery in EMs April’s PMIs suggest that manufacturing across the emerging world softened further last month. While there are signs that manufacturing growth in the smaller EMs is starting to lose steam, the... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s political crisis is entering a crucial phase Thailand’s political crisis is approaching a critical stage as caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra faces key rulings that could force her out of office. There are some signs that the ruling... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia more likely to cut than hike rates later in 2014 The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its policy rate unchanged at 2.5% at its meeting today, and re-iterated that it does not expect to make any changes in the near term. 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
