Asia Economics Weekly Singapore’s strong Q2 is not the start of a robust recovery Singapore’s economy posted its strongest gain in two years in Q2. We are raising our full-yearforecast for 2013 but, as this Weekly explains, last quarter’s good performance will not be thestart of a... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s rice subsidy sustainable Thailand’s government can afford to maintain its rice subsidy scheme indefinitely, as long as GDP growth holds up and rice prices do not collapse. However, doing so would put at risk the goal of... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia to wait until 2014 before hiking rates Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% at its meeting today. We think rates will remain on hold until early 2014, when we have pencilled in a hike. 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further aggressive rate hikes in Indonesia unlikely Bank Indonesia (BI) today hiked both its main policy rate and the Fasbi rate by 50bp amid concerns about the currency and the outlook for inflation. Consumer price inflation is likely to rise as high... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exporters remain under pressure The latest batch of EM trade data suggests that exporters continue to struggle in the face of slowing demand from their major global trade partners. Moreover, there isn’t much in the forward-looking... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korean rates kept on hold, but cut likely before year-end The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its main policy rate on hold at 2.5% today, as expected. Nevertheless, with inflation set to remain weak and economic growth likely to stay lacklustre, we have pencilled... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Some tentative signs of stabilisation Yields of dollar-denominated emerging market government bonds have surged since late May, reflecting increases in both underlying US Treasury yields and credit spreads. But while Treasury yields have... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China’s slowdown: which EMs are most exposed? Last week we published for the first time our forecasts for 2015 GDP growth in China, which put us right at the bottom end of consensus expectations. For the rest of the emerging world, the effects of... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update No more cuts ahead The Bank of Thailand (BoT) kept its policy rate at 2.50% at its meeting today. We believe the central bank’s easing cycle has come to an end, though subdued economic activity means rate hikes do not... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook The turning tide - life after QE Emerging economies are much better positioned than in the past to withstand policy tightening by the Fed and few are at risk of an immediate crisis. Nonetheless, we are entering a new era for emerging... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly IMF deal no solution to Pakistan's woes Pakistan has reached an initial agreement with the IMF for a US$5.3bn loan. The deal should avert a balance of payments crisis but, as this Weekly explains, the conditions attached to the loan will... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Policy approaches turning point Despite China’s ongoing slowdown, growth in the rest of Emerging Asia should pick up over the next couple of years, helped by a combination of loose monetary policy and stronger global demand. The... 5th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The EM winners and losers from the shale revolution There’s a vast amount of uncertainty about the potential for developing countries to follow the US and Canada in exploiting their shale reserves. But if they can, it could turn a large number of... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMIs fall again, but Emerging Europe bucks the trend June’s PMIs suggest that the downturn in emerging market manufacturing is gathering pace, with our EM-wide PMI estimate dropping to its lowest level for nearly a year. Producers in Asia and Latin... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia’s rate-cutting cycle is not over yet The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its cash rate on hold at 2.75% at its meeting today, as was widely expected. In its accompanying statement, the RBA stressed that it expects an improvement in... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update June PMIs provide little encouragement The June PMIs for Emerging Asia suggest the region’s manufacturing sectors continue to struggle. New orders were particularly disappointing. We think fragile global demand will make life difficult for... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
