Capital Daily Fall in EM yields may be delayed but is still on the cards Inflationary pressures both domestically and in the US may keep government bond yields in emerging markets high for a while yet. But we think they will eventually fall later in the year. 12th April 2024 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC faces difficult choice as dollar strengthens The PBOC’s support of the renminbi against a strengthening dollar is resulting in a trade-weighted appreciation of the currency. This risks eroding Chinese export competitiveness and has a... 12th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea election blow for President Yoon, Taiwan export boom The poor performance of President Yoon’s PPP party in this week’s parliamentary elections in Korea will make it even harder for the president to push through his conservative reform agenda. That said... 12th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea keeps open the possibility of rate cuts The Bank of Korea left its policy rate on hold today (at 3.5%), but kept open the possibility of rate cuts later this year. However, with inflation concerns continuing to linger, we are pushing back... 12th April 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Mar. 2024) Despite a larger-than-expected y/y fall in export values, export volumes climbed to record highs. Nonetheless, we still think export volumes will grow more slowly this year than they did in 2023... 12th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Singapore Monetary Policy Announcement & Q1 2024 GDP (adv) The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept policy settings unchanged today, as expected, but with the economy set to remain weak and core inflation on track to resume its downward trend soon we... 12th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr. 2024) Capital flows into EMs have continued to rise in recent weeks, aided by robust global risk appetite. While yesterday’s strong US CPI release has clouded the outlook for Fed interest rate cuts and... 11th April 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar. 2024) CPI inflation rose less than expected in March but is still trending upwards. We think an easing of food price deflation and the ongoing modest economic recovery will support a slow reflation in the... 11th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Thailand Monetary Policy Announcement Thailand’s central bank (BoT) today resisted pressure from the government to loosen monetary policy, but with growth set to remain weak and inflationary pressures very subdued, we still think rate... 10th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Taiwan: Global AI spending will drive rapid growth Taiwan will be one of the main beneficiaries of a lengthy global AI investment boom. We expect its economy to growth much faster over the rest of this decade than it did during the 2010s. 9th April 2024 · 8 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Philippines Monetary Policy Announcement (April) The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) today left its main policy rate unchanged (at 6.50%), but sounded more hawkish than we had expected on inflation. Accordingly, we are pushing back the timing... 8th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BoT decision on a knife edge Inflation in Thailand was still negative last month, according to data released earlier today. With recent activity subdued, the central bank will have to change tack and start loosening policy soon... 5th April 2024 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Policy support for car sales won’t ease trade tensions The PBOC’s scrapping of the regulatory minimum down payment for car loans may help boost vehicle demand in the short run. But it won’t be enough to prevent a further increase in car exports, so... 5th April 2024 · 7 mins read
India Economics Update RBI policy pivot creeping closer The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected but the more interesting aspect was the slight dialling down of its hawkish rhetoric. With inflation grinding down towards the central... 5th April 2024 · 2 mins read
