Asia Economics Weekly Five years after Lehmans: how has Asia changed? It is five years since the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Asia has been able to grow rapidly in the years since, but with monetary policy both at home and abroad likely to be less supportive in the... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update GDP growth to remain strong in Sri Lanka GDP growth in Sri Lanka accelerated in y/y terms in the second quarter due mainly to a surge in construction spending. We expect the economy to continue to grow strongly for the rest of the year... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Five years on – what next for the emerging world? In the five years since the collapse of Lehman Brothers, emerging economies have accounted for three-quarters of global growth. This has fed expectations that the emerging world can continue to... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Little threat of a systemic EM crisis We do not expect the tapering and eventual ending of QE by the US Fed to be the trigger for a systemic Emerging Market (EM) crisis. Our Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) suggests that financial... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to keep monetary policy tight Bank Indonesia (BI) today unexpectedly hiked interest rates in response to continued weakness in the rupiah. Looking ahead, even if the currency starts to recover soon, monetary policy will still need... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rates on hold in the Philippines, but hikes likely next year With no sign that strong economic growth is feeding through into higher consumer price inflation, the central bank in the Philippines (BSP), as expected, opted to keep interest rates unchanged today... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korean rates set for prolonged hold The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept interest rates on hold today amid signs that the economy is starting to recover. Looking ahead, with inflation set to remain subdued, we think the central bank will keep... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand rate hike still looks some way off The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.5% today. A rate hike is likely in 2014, but tightening is unlikely to be aggressive. 11th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Falling current account surpluses are not to be feared Current account deficits in India and Indonesia have rightly caused some concern, but elsewhere in Asia the trend towards smaller current account surpluses should be welcomed. 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Central bank in Malaysia to hike rates next year Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% at its meeting today. We expect the BNM to keep rates on hold for the rest of the year before hiking by 25bp as it looks to reduce... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What should we make of India’s latest reforms? The new governor of India’s central bank has arrived with a package of reforms that should settle the nerves of investors. However, the government has not been playing its part, making little progress... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia’s mining slowdown is inevitable Australia’s GDP growth remained slightly below trend in Q2. We expect growth to slow further over the coming quarters as the economy struggles to cope with cooling mining investment. 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Currency weakness will not lead to inflation spike in Asia The recent sell-off in Asian currencies has sparked fears that the region is about to suffer a sharp spike in inflation. We think this is unlikely. While exchange rate depreciation can push up the... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMI signals modest improvement in manufacturing Our EM-wide PMI suggests that emerging market manufacturing improved a little last month. The recovery in the euro-zone in recent months appears to have boosted external demand, particularly in... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia likely to cut rates before the end of the year The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its policy rate on hold today, as expected. However, we still expect further loosening before the end of the year, and think that rates will remain very low in... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update BRIC GDP growth propped up by Brazil rebound in Q2 At an aggregate level, the second quarter GDP data suggest that the BRIC economies held up relatively well in Q2. However, this was largely due to a surprisingly strong rebound in Brazil. In the other... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
