Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Commodity exporters lag behind in EM export recovery We wouldn't read too much into the slowdown in EM export growth in September. The monthly data are volatile and there are already signs that exports rebounded in October. Nonetheless, EM export growth... 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan finally gets serious about inflation The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) hiked its policy rate for the second time in two months yesterday. This represents a sharp turnaround from earlier this year, when the central bank cut rates despite a... 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rates to remain on prolonged hold in Korea The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate on hold today, as expected. Looking ahead, with inflation set to remain low, the central bank will be in no rush to raise interest rates, and we expect... 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs will benefit most from a US recovery? A raft of strong activity data from the US suggests that the recovery there is gaining momentum. We expect growth in the US to accelerate further over the coming quarters. The biggest beneficiaries in... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia hikes, but rate tightening cycle is probably over Bank Indonesia’s decision to hike interest rates today is largely aimed at easing pressure on the current account and stabilising the rupiah. But the lagged impact of substantial rate increases in the... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How will Typhoon Haiyan affect the Philippine economy? One of the strongest typhoons ever recorded hit the Philippines on Friday. The disaster is first and foremost a human tragedy, but it will also have economic effects. There is likely to be a short... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly When India sneezes... India is by a long way the largest economy in South Asia. It is eight times the size of Pakistan and more than 30 times the size of Sri Lanka. India’s current weakness might therefore be expected to... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM bank funding carrying more risks We’ve voiced concern about the pace of credit growth in a number of EMs. Worryingly, the composition of banks’ funding appears to have deteriorated at the same time, most notably in Turkey, but also... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate hike in Malaysia likely in first half of 2014 Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% at its meeting today. As the economy gains a firmer footing on the back of improving export prospects over the next year, we expect... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Easing food inflation to keep EM inflation pressures subdued Falling global food prices should keep food inflation subdued across much of the emerging world over the coming months. Emerging Europe and Latin America in particular are likely to see significant... 6th November 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update No rebound in Indonesia’s growth likely soon Data released today showed that the pace of economic growth in Indonesia slowed again in Q3. Looking ahead, high inflation and recent interest rate hikes will weigh on growth over the next year. 6th November 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia’s central bank still likely to cut again next year The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its policy rate on hold at 2.5% today, as expected. However, we still expect further loosening in early 2014, and think that rates will remain very low for the... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Further signs of improvement in EM manufacturing Manufacturing across the emerging world appears to have made a strong start to Q4. Our EM-wide PMI estimate, based on data produced by Markit, is consistent with a pick-up in industrial production... 4th November 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Australia rate cuts risk re-inflating housing market The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut interest rates aggressively over the last two years, as it has looked to boost the non-mining economy to compensate for cooling mining investment. While low... 4th November 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update October PMIs suggest recovery is becoming entrenched The October PMIs for Emerging Asia were generally upbeat, with headline numbers for most countries rising. New orders were particularly encouraging, which bodes well for the short-term outlook. India... 1st November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Little sign of recovery in EM growth Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth was probably unchanged from Q2 in the third quarter. Although there is evidence of a recovery in Emerging Asia, growth in Latin America probably slowed in Q3... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
