Emerging Markets Economics Update EM policymakers unlikely to follow China’s lead There is little reason to think that the decision by the People’s Bank of China to lower interest rates will trigger a spate of copycat responses from other EM central banks. China’s capital account... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM monetary policy takes divergent paths Monetary policy is heading in differing directions across the emerging world. Several economies in Central and Eastern Europe, Asia (notably China) and Latin America have lowered interest rates in... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Investors gain confidence in reform outlook The surge in the Sensex stock index to an all-time high in November has come amid signs that Prime Minister Modi is now more willing to push through wideranging reform following the BJP’s decisive... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How big a threat is deflation? Sharp falls in global commodity prices have helped push inflation down across nearly all of Emerging Asia in recent months. However, while most countries in the region look set for a period of low... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will QE in Japan and the euro-zone affect EMs? The Bank of Japan’s decision to boost asset purchases just as the ECB edges towards QE has rekindled concerns about negative spillovers from developed world monetary policy to the emerging world. The... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Lower commodity prices bring mixed news for EMs Recent falls in commodity prices have left some emerging market (EM) economies in a tailspin. The S&P GSCI, an index of commodity prices, has fallen by more than 20% since its June peak, largely due... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Missed fiscal target this year would not be all bad news India looks set to miss its fiscal target this year, even in the optimistic case that the government fully delivers on its plans to sell stakes in state-owned companies. But this was always likely... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How vulnerable are other Asian currencies to yen weakness? It is tempting to think that a further sharp fall in Japan’s currency would prompt policymakers in the rest of Asia to try to weaken their own in an effort to maintain their competitiveness. But there... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Equities surge to record highs India’s financial markets have performed well over the past month. Bond yields have fallen, while the rupee has remained stable against the US$. But the big story has been in equity markets, which... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Where next for interest rates in Indonesia? Today’s 25 basis point rate hike by Bank Indonesia (BI) is a direct response to yesterday’s government decision to hike subsidised fuel prices. While we wouldn’t rule out the possibility of another... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia-China FTA will help rebalance Australia’s economy Australia signed a free trade agreement (FTA) with China yesterday that will give its exporters a surprising amount of access to China’s market. The biggest opportunities lie in the agriculture and... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate hikes in Indonesia unlikely despite subsidy cuts Today’s move by Indonesia’s new president to hike fuel prices is an encouraging first step on the road to reform. Although inflation is now likely to rise sharply, any spike should prove temporary... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
India Data Response Trade (Oct.) Given the recent sharp falls in global oil prices, the relatively small narrowing of India’s trade deficit in October is disappointing. A renewed slump in exports is to blame. Looking ahead... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan rate cut not the start of aggressive easing The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) cut its policy rate by 50bp to 9.5% over the weekend, having been encouraged by a recent drop in inflation. But with inflation set to rise again over the coming months... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q3) Thailand's economy continued its lacklustre recovery in the third quarter, with growth picking up only slightly to 0.6% y/y from 0.4% the quarter before. Growth should accelerate further in the coming... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly China-Korea free trade deal is not a game changer The recently announced free-trade deal between Korea and China has generated plenty of optimistic headlines. However, we are sceptical the deal will have much impact, and it certainly isn’t going to... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
