Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency turmoil not yet a risk to EM inflation As things stand, the recent sharp falls in emerging market (EM) currencies do not appear to be a major threat to EM inflation. Even those emerging economies that have borne the brunt of the currency... 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Economic fallout from market turmoil should be contained It’s too early to say with any certainty what impact the current turmoil in financial markets will have on EM growth. But while we expect the countries that have been hit hardest in recent weeks –... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand rate hike is imminent The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.5% today, but it made clear in its statement that it will be raising rates soon. As long as data releases continue to show... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Turkey & India likely to be the exception rather than the rule The decisions by Turkey and India yesterday to raise interest rates have inevitably led to speculation that market turbulence will force policymakers in other parts of the emerging world to follow... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia tightening cycle to start in first half of 2014 Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) unsurprisingly kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% at its meeting today. But with the economy gradually gaining traction, we think the next move in rates is likely to... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asia escaping the worst of recent EM turmoil Asia has escaped the worst of the latest sell-off in EM assets. What’s more, some of the economies that were hit hardest during the turmoil of last summer have proved more resilient this time around. 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Dual concerns over inflation and rupee behind India rate hike The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) surprised the market with a rate hike today, signalling its commitment to bringing down inflation, while perhaps also hoping to protect the rupee amid the ongoing... 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan emerges from doldrums, recovery to continue GDP data released today for the final quarter of 2013 show that Taiwan’s economy ended 2013 on a solid note. Growth is likely to increase gradually in y/y terms over the next couple of years, helped... 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Asia is struggling for momentum Emerging Asia is continuing to struggle. While rising demand from the developed world is helping some economies, most notably Korea, it looks like the region as a whole ended the year on a lacklustre... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are we seeing a re-run of the summer sell-off? The sell-off in emerging market (EM) assets following the Fed’s decision to taper its asset purchases in December has prompted comparisons with last summer’s turmoil. But while the latest data from... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Indian inflation subsides as RBI considers policy reform A good harvest appears to have dampened food price inflation in India. As a result, consumer and wholesale prices both fell sharply at the end of 2013. While inflation is likely to ease further over... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation likely to remain sticky in the “fragile five” The sharp falls in the currencies of the “fragile five” economies over the past half a year may cause import price inflation to rise over the next few months, particularly in Turkey and, to a lesser... 24th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central banks loosen policy in spite of Fed tapering Despite concerns that the US Fed’s tapering of its asset purchases may force EM policymakers to hike interest rates, more EM central banks have loosened monetary policy over the past six months than... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Low interest rates and rising exports to support Korean growth Korea's economy recorded another quarter of strong growth in Q4 last year, thanks mainly to a pick-up in external demand. The economy should remain fairly strong over the next couple of years, thanks... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand's political crisis still likely to trigger another rate cut Despite rising concerns about the impact of Thailand's political crisis on the economy, the Bank of Thailand (BoT) opted to keep its policy rate at 2.25% today. But with no clear resolution to the... 22nd January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s political crisis: How will it play out? Thailand’s political tensions have ratcheted up a notch, with the government today declaring a state of emergency in Bangkok. In this Update, we consider several scenarios for how the political crisis... 21st January 2014 · 1 min read
