China Economics Weekly PBOC bond trading, LGFV pullback The PBOC has clarified that its plans to start trading government bonds are aimed at managing interest rate risk, not conducting QE. This reinforces our sense that large-scale monetary easing remains... 26th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Will any other central banks hike interest rates? We are not expecting any other central banks in the region to follow Bank Indonesia and hike interest rates to support their currencies. However, one central bank worth monitoring is the State Bank of... 26th April 2024 · 9 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Korea GDP (Q1, 2024) GDP growth in Korea rose sharply in Q1 but we don't expect this strength to last. Weak global growth is set to weigh on exports in the near term while tight monetary and fiscal policy will curtail... 25th April 2024 · 2 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Cyclical recovery still underway Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests the economy saw a healthy expansion in March, driven by the continued strength of industry. While we think that fiscal support will keep fuelling the economy in... 24th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: surprise hike, but no further tightening likely In a surprise move, Bank Indonesia (BI) today hiked its main policy rate by 25bps (to 6.25%) and made clear that supporting the currency would remain its key priority over the coming months. But there... 24th April 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China trip notes – sentiment still depressed A week spent visiting clients, contacts and friends in Beijing and Shanghai has underlined the extent of the pessimistic shift in sentiment within China. 23rd April 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Another tough year ahead for Korean consumers A weak labour market and high interest rates will continue to weigh heavily on Korea’s consumer sector this year. The poor prospects for consumer spending is one of the main reasons we think overall... 22nd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Time to worry about inflation (again)? Recent currency falls and higher oil prices are unlikely to put significant upward pressure on consumer prices across Asia. We continue to expect inflation in the region to remain low over the coming... 22nd April 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Service sector picking up, overcapacity worsening The GDP breakdown suggests that the acceleration in growth last quarter was driven by the service sector, although the parts most dependent on consumer spending fared less well. And despite the recent... 19th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly How will Bank Indonesia respond to the slump in the rupiah? With the rupiah coming under further downward pressure against the US dollar this week, a rate hike by Bank Indonesia at its scheduled meeting on Wednesday cannot be ruled out. However, our sense is... 19th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (April 2024) Aggregate EM GDP growth will enter a slower phase over the coming quarters. But the headline figure masks large variation in prospects at a country level, with many EMs experiencing a reversal of last... 18th April 2024 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What if the Fed doesn’t cut? Local factors will determine the next moves by most of Asia’s central banks, not the actions of the US Fed. We expect policymakers in Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines and Korea to lower interest... 16th April 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China GDP (Q1) & Activity (Mar. 2024) Stronger-than-expected official GDP figures indicate that China’s economy gained momentum in Q1, thanks to policy support. But monthly activity data suggest that this policy-driven recovery is shaky... 16th April 2024 · 2 mins read
