Asia Economics Update Change in Sri Lankan leadership brings uncertainty Opposition candidate Maithripala Sirisena has emerged victorious in Sri Lanka’s presidential election. Markets have responded favourably, perhaps not so much to the result itself as to encouraging... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Pick-up in inflation unlikely to worry RBI Consumer price inflation is likely to have edged up in December as the unwinding of favourable base effects from food inflation more than offset the impact of tumbling oil prices and weak core price... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Cause for optimism in 2015 In our first Watch of 2015, we outline the prospects for India’s economy over the coming year. Falling commodity prices should brighten the outlook by providing a boost to consumer spending and... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update GST will add to headwinds, but won't derail Malaysia's economy The introduction of a Goods and Services Tax (GST) in April marks an important step towards strengthening Malaysia's public finances over the medium term. And while it will put upward pressure on... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing activity still subdued The latest PMI data suggest that manufacturing activity across the emerging world was steady, but still relatively sluggish, at the end of last year. Manufacturers in some of the non-BRIC EMs, such as... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) The December PMIs for Emerging Asia were generally disappointing, suggesting that the region's manufacturing sectors continue to struggle. In the two economies where the PMIs most closely track the... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Sri Lanka faces tight election contest Sri Lanka’s presidential election, scheduled for 8 th January, is shaping up to be much closer than expected, with the current president, Mahinda Rajapaksa, now facing a genuine challenge from... 24th December 2014 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Oil price collapse lowers Russian ruble’s fair value Last week, the Russian finance ministry claimed that the ruble was “extremely undervalued”. Admittedly, it made the claim when the currency was around 70 to the dollar, and the exchange rate has since... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update A selection of key calls for 2015 and beyond We expect 2015 to be another year of large divergences in the performances of the advanced economies, with the US and the UK leading the pack and the euro-zone and Japan continuing to struggle. But... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Oil price slide prompts withdrawal from emerging markets Investors’ retreat from emerging markets over the past month has reflected growing concerns about the implications of the collapse in the price of oil. Admittedly, most countries (and the world as a... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Who is most exposed to the debts of oil majors? The fall in oil prices has raised concerns about oil majors’ ability to service debts accumulated during the good times. Risks are concentrated in Latin America, but there is plenty that both... 22nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What to expect in Asia in 2015 In this Weekly we outline our key calls for the region in 2015. We expect Emerging Asia to be a bright spot in the global economy, with growth set to accelerate in most economies. Falling commodity... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil price falls won’t let high inflation EMs off the hook Although the recent drop in oil prices will continue to exert downward pressure on inflation in most parts of the emerging world, it won’t provide a lasting solution for the economies with high... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Reasons for optimism as 2014 ends On the face of it, 2014 has been another disappointing year for the Indianeconomy. Growth over the first three quarters averaged just 5.2% y/y, only asmall improvement from the trough of 2012-2013 and... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will sustained low oil prices affect EM currencies? The currencies of many emerging economies have sold off recently, due to general US dollar strength and, in some cases, declining oil prices. While our forecast that oil prices will remain low... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rough end to the year for Asian markets Emerging Asia’s financial markets have not escaped the latest turmoil unscathed, but they have fared better than other EM regions. 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
