Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation remains subdued despite currency weakness In aggreate terms, there is little sign that currency weakness is leading to higher emerging market (EM) inflation. With few signs of a build-up in domestic price pressures either, we expect EM... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia making progress in escaping middle income trap Malaysia has made decent progress in its bid to transition to high-income status by 2020. However, further reforms to enhance economic competitiveness are crucial to sustaining strong growth. 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Political upheaval in Thailand to weigh on rice prices The potential end of the controversial support scheme for rice farmers in Thailand this week should add to the downward pressure on rice prices over the next few years. In particular, how the... 26th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Some calm returns after January’s exodus In January, net selling of emerging market securities by global ETFs and mutual funds was larger than in any month since last June according to EPFR Global. But timelier daily data from six stock... 26th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Interest rates to stay lower than consensus expects Asian central banks have, for the most part, left interest rates on hold recently, with India the only major central bank in the region to adjust monetary policy over the past month. India raised... 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korean government growth target unlikely to be met President Park Geun-hye’s plans to raise trend growth to 4% by 2017 are unlikely to succeed. In fact, we see trend growth in Korea slowing to around 2% over the next decade. 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly India and Indonesia – not so fragile? After coming through the latest bout of market turmoil with surprising resilience, it could be time for Indonesia and India to hand in their membership of the so-called ”Fragile Five”. Importantly... 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore budget looks to the long term Today’s budget for the coming fiscal year targets a small surplus, which comes as no surprise given the reasonably upbeat short-term outlook for the economy and lingering concerns over inflation. But... 21st February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM world is facing a difficult year The EM recovery is still struggling for momentum, with our GDP tracker suggesting that the upturn in growth seen in mid-2013 may have stalled. On the positive side, it seems unlikely that the most... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Thailand's political crisis and its economic implications Thailand has been mired in a political crisis since November last year which continues to show no clear sign of resolution. The prolonged impasse has disrupted economic activity and is hurting the... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore's export outlook is upbeat, but it faces domestic drags Today’s GDP data showed that Singapore's economy ended 2013 on a strong note. Recovery in advanced economies should support growth this year, even as domestic factors act as drags. Given the healthy... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Which EMs are succeeding with the reform challenge? In contrast to the BRICs, where economic growth is likely to disappoint without structural reform, there are parts of the emerging world where recent economic reforms should provide a major boost to... 19th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s auto industry highlights weakness of domestic demand Domestic demand in India remains lacklustre, overshadowing the encouraging performance of exports. Trends in the auto industry provide a case in point, as healthy passenger vehicle exports have not... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s economy to struggle amid unresolved political crisis Thailand’s economy was not as badly damaged by the outbreak of political unrest in Q4 last year as we had feared, but with the disruption escalating since late December, much worse probably lies ahead... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Prolonged political crisis holding back growth in Thailand Following an inconclusive general election, Thailand’s power vacuum is likely to persist for a couple more months at least. Most attention has been focused on the potential short-term economic... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to keep rates on hold until 2015 Bank Indonesia (BI) today left interest rates on hold for a third consecutive month. With the rupiah showing signs of resilience, inflation likely to fall back in the second half of the year, and the... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
