Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s rate pause to continue through 2015 The Malaysian central bank (BNM) unsurprisingly kept its policy rate on hold at 3.25% today, and is unlikely to make any changes during the rest of this year. There are some concerns about the pace of... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Falling inflation not enough to trigger Thai rate cut The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates unchanged at 2.0% today despite the recent drop in inflation. While dissent within the monetary policy committee has raised the odds of a rate cut, we... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus What do lower oil prices mean for the emerging world? The collapse in global oil prices will provide a boost to most economies in the emerging world. However, it will come at the cost of weaker growth in the Middle East, and deep recessions in Russia and... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Jokowi’s first 100 days: a promising start Indonesia’s new president, Joko Widodo (known as Jokowi) has made an encouraging start to hispresidency. But tougher challenges lie ahead, while a corruption scandal is raising questions about... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore moves early to counter deflation concerns In an unscheduled decision, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) today loosened monetary policy by reducing the slope of its target band for the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER). The change... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Will Governor Rajan follow up on early rate cut? Following the RBI’s decision to cut interest rates at an unscheduled meeting earlier this month, a small majority of forecasters expect rates to be kept on hold at the scheduled policy meeting next... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Divergence in EM inflation to widen further in 2015 Inflation has diverged significantly across the emerging world over the past few months. While some economies have slipped into deflation, in a number of countries consumer prices are rising at a... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan's rate cut likely to be the last for some time The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) cut its policy rate by 100bp to 8.5%, the lowest since 2005, over the weekend. Although inflation and money supply growth have both slowed sharply in recent months, we... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Does Singapore’s currency regime still suit its needs? The decision by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to abandon its exchange rate ceiling has created questions about the sustainability of other currency regimes. We think there is little chance of the... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q1 2015) Lower oil prices should provide a welcome boost to incomes, and hence consumption, in large parts of the emerging world. We are particularly upbeat about the outlook for consumers in China, India, the... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q4 Preliminary) Today's advance estimate suggests Korea's economy ended 2014 on a soft note, with growth slowing to a seasonally-adjusted 0.4% q/q in Q4 from 0.9% the quarter before. However, growth should rebound in... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update ECB QE and what it means for emerging markets The programme of asset purchases announced by the European Central Bank (ECB) earlier today was larger than had been expected only a few days ago, but fears that it could fuel destabilising inflows to... 22nd January 2015 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Further rate cuts are on the way The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) shocked markets earlier this month by cutting its main policy rates at an unscheduled meeting. The accompanying statement also paved the way for further policy... 22nd January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Oiling the wheels Global growth has slowed in recent months, but we still expect world GDP to expand by just over 3% this year and next. The slump in oil prices should have a positive impact overall, even though it... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Investors’ enthusiasm for EM assets should return Investors’ retreat from emerging markets over the past month has reflected growing concerns about the implications of the collapse in the price of oil. Admittedly, most countries (and the world as a... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand rate hikes looking more and more distant The recent drop in oil prices is not the only reason to think that consumer price inflation will remain low in New Zealand over the next couple of years. Domestic price pressures are also fading. We... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
