Emerging Europe Economics Update Spike in agricultural prices unlikely to drive up EM inflation A spike in global agricultural commodity prices has raised concerns that the current period of subdued inflation in the emerging world could be nearing an end. But the recent increases still leave... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update The Philippines holds policy rate, but first hike not far off Although the central bank in the Philippines (BSP) opted to keep the overnight rate on hold at a record low of just 3.5% at its meeting today, it hiked its reserve requirement ratio by 1pp, suggesting... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan's central bank under little pressure to hike rates Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left interest rates on hold today, as was widely expected. The economy is performing better, but with inflation set to remain subdued we expect the CBC to keep interest... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor BRIC economies continue to underperform Growth across the emerging world appears to have remained unchanged at around 4.5% y/y at the start of this year. The recovery in Emerging Europe has faltered, but this was largely due to the weakness... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Asia's consumer sector is picking up After enduring a slump for much of 2013, retail sales in Emerging Asia (ex. China) appear to have turned a corner. Growth has picked up strongly across most countries in the region in recent months... 26th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Venezuela and Thailand still the most at risk The Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) has fallen to a ten-year low suggesting that there is very little threat of a 1990s-style systemic emerging market (EM) crisis. That being said, some... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Still no end to Thailand's political crisis in sight Thailand’s ongoing political crisis took a new turn on Friday with the constitutional court deciding to annul the February general election. The annulment brings the crisis no closer to a resolution... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Can the Philippines become a manufacturing powerhouse? The Philippines has been making good progress in developing a competitive manufacturing sector. Low wages, the relocation of labour-intensive manufacturing from China, and recent improvements to the... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Is Emerging Asia about to run into structural constraints? Concerns over structural constraints on growth have come to the fore recently, in the wake of prolonged slowdowns in some of the world's biggest emerging economies. There are some fears that parts of... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Weaker domestic demand driving fragile five’s external positions At an aggregate level, the current account deficit of the “fragile five” (Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey) showed a welcome improvement towards the end of last year. But progress has... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Optimism over India’s elections may be misplaced Recent polls pointing to a rising margin of victory for the opposition BJP in the upcoming elections have boosted business confidence. But we think such optimism may be misplaced, with coalition... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Has Australia already turned a corner? A recent collection of upbeat data has been taken by a number of commentators as a sign that Australia's economy has turned a corner. Most are expecting faster growth in 2014. But with the economy on... 20th March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand’s outlook still healthy, despite Q4 slowdown New Zealand’s economy slowed in Q4, largely owing to the fading impact of the recovery from a drought that hit the country in the first half of last year. Broader indicators suggest the economy is in... 20th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack China fears resurface Worries about the impact on other emerging economies of a slowdown in China have risen back to the top of the agenda over the past month. While we do not believe a hard landing is likely, we do expect... 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The kiwi can fly! New Zealand dollar to remain high It is tempting to conclude that the New Zealand dollar is set to fall sharply. After all, on several measures, it is the most overvalued of the G10 currencies. But with the key driver behind the... 18th March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka’s growth outlook remains strong Sri Lanka recorded another quarter of strong growth in Q4 last year on the back of a continued recovery in external demand and accommodative monetary policy. These factors are likely to continue to... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
