China Economics Update Trump, tariffs, tech controls, Taiwan & China Large US tariffs would hurt China’s export sector but less than many suppose. We estimate that the direct impact of even a 60% US tariff on goods from China would be well under 1% of China’s GDP. The... 7th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Focus The macro and market consequences of a second Trump administration Donald Trump’s second presidency is likely to result in lower US GDP growth, faster US inflation and a slightly higher path for the fed funds rate. The implications for the rest of the world are... 6th November 2024 · 14 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Malaysia: Monetary Policy Meeting (November 2024) 6th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: more easing likely as inflation falls again With inflation falling back further in October, growth struggling and the property market in the doldrums, the conditions are in place for the Bank of Korea to cut interest rates again soon. We think... 5th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly North Korea tensions rising, US election implications North Korea’s relations with South Korea and its allies have taken a marked turn for the worse over the past month, with experts warning that “the situation on the Korean Peninsula is more dangerous... 1st November 2024 · 10 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal package should limit downside risk to growth The NPC standing committee is set to approve a fiscal package at its meeting next week. A large proportion will likely be used to tackle local government debt, but it's unclear how much (if any) will... 1st November 2024 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Oct .24) The economy has already regained some momentum on the back of increased policy support. But the extent of the recovery hinges on the scale of fiscal stimulus, which remains uncertain. Our base case is... 1st November 2024 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (October) The October PMIs from Asia remained weak and while the PMI surveys aren’t always a good guide to the hard activity data, their recent signals are consistent with our expectation for manufacturing... 1st November 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Political vacuum won’t deter year-end rate hike It now looks likely that the existing LDP/Komeito coalition will remain in power via a partial alliance with the Democratic Party for the People. While there's a risk that the DPP demands policy... 1st November 2024 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response Hong Kong GDP (Q3 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy contracted sharply in Q3. GDP surprised significantly to the downside, with growth of 0.4% q/q in Q2 more than reversed by a 1.1% q/q fall in Q3 (Bloomberg median: +0.2%, CE: -0.2%... 31st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Taiwan GDP (Q3, first estimate) Taiwan’s economy rebounded in Q3, and we expect GDP growth to remain fairly strong over the coming quarters, helped by robust export demand. 31st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ opens door to another rate hike BoJ Governor Ueda sounded more optimistic today and we’re sticking to our forecast of another rate hike at the Bank’s next meeting in December, though we don’t expect further tightening in 2025. 31st October 2024 · 3 mins read
