Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export performance remains dire Although EM exports contracted less sharply in February, the improvement was almost entirely down to a surge in China’s exports, which have been distorted by shifts in the timing of Chinese New Year... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Uncertainty over tax policy could stifle private investment Comments from Finance Minister Arun Jaitley that he plans to raise nearly US$6.5bn by retrospectively taxing foreign companies would, if acted upon, represent a major relapse on economic reforms, and... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Lessons from history: is a debt problem brewing in EMs? We have been warning about the dangers stemming from rapid credit growth in several EMs for a while. In this Focus we revisit the possible lessons from history. Three points stand out – with... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update India overtaking China – what is all the fuss about? Among the more headline-grabbing developments in the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook is that the Fund is now forecasting India’s economy to grow faster than China’s in 2015 and 2016. But putting... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Mar.) Wholesale price inflation fell further into negative territory in March to its lowest rate since the series began in 2005. Crucially, core inflation continues to drop sharply, providing more evidence... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka cuts rates to new lows, door opened for more Against a backdrop of falling inflation, the central bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) today cut its deposit and lending policy rates by 50 basis points each, to 6.0% and 7.5%, respectively. 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Window for policy loosening starting to close The wave of EM policy loosening that was triggered by the drop in oil prices at the end of last year is now reaching an end. However, it won't be until 2016 that most central banks move into... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to cut rates again before end-2015 Bank Indonesia (BI) left its main policy rate on hold today at 7.5% despite the continued weakness of the economy. Although much will depend on what happens to the rupiah, we expect to see interest... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore is finished with policy loosening The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) today decided to make no changes to its policy stance, despite the current bout of deflation and downbeat GDP growth in the first quarter. Concerns about the... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) Consumer price inflation unexpectedly dropped in March as concerns over the impact of heavy rains on food inflation proved unfounded. What’s more, core inflation remains low, and headline inflation is... 13th April 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore looks set for more policy loosening We expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to loosen policy again at its meeting on Tuesday, most likely by re-centring its target band for the exchange rate to allow some depreciation. But... 10th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Government’s export targets are unlikely to be met The government’s ambitious plans to almost double exports by 2020 from current levels are no bad thing, but in truth the targets look unrealistic. Reforms that would significantly boost export... 10th April 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Most of Emerging Asia set for faster growth Most economies in Emerging Asia are likely to record decent growth over the next couple of years. However, with the pace of expansion in the region’s biggest economy, China, set to ease further in... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Is rising food inflation a concern? Inflation is likely to have accelerated in March, in large part due to rising food prices caused by recent unseasonable rains. But weekly data suggest that the majority of the inflation spike may have... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rising financial risks to deter aggressive rate cuts in Korea The Bank of Korea (BoK) held its policy rate at 1.75% today, following a rate cut last month. The slow pace of recovery has raised speculation of further monetary policy loosening, but we think... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Indonesia Tin Exports (Mar. 15) Indonesia’s tin exports rose strongly in March, but we expect lower volumes in coming months owing to a self-imposed export quota. This will be one factor supporting our forecast that tin prices will... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
