India Economics Update Monsoon threat to inflation overplayed Inflation is likely to have stayed subdued in May. There are rising concerns that a weaker-than-normal monsoon could push inflation up in the months ahead. But we remain sanguine: many factors in... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What would the Philippines look like without Aquino? With just one year to go before presidential elections in the Philippines, attention is turning to who will replace the current president, Benigno Aquino. The current president deserves much credit... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Labour market reform: can Mr Modi learn lessons from the states? Slow progress in liberalising India’s rigid labour market has been one of the biggest disappointments of PM Modi’s first year in power, but there are signs of improvement at state level, most notably... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update PMIs pointing to lacklustre activity India's May PMI readings for both the manufacturing and services sectors suggest that activity remains subdued by past standards. The PMIs add to the list of indicators that contradict the official... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing PMIs point to modest signs of improvement May’s manufacturing PMIs brought the first signs that the recent slump in manufacturing across the emerging world may be bottoming out. But there remain huge differences in performance. May’s... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rate-cutting cycle has a little further to run Today's decision by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut the repo rate for the third time this year to 7.25% is unlikely to be the last in the current loosening cycle. But the RBI can't be... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Weak yen not to blame for Korean export woes Subdued global demand, rather than the strength of the Korean won against the Japanese yen is to blame for the poor recent performance of Korean exports. 1st June 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q1) At face value, today’s GDP data for Q1 suggest that India is the fastest-growing major economy in the world. But the GDP data remain wildly inconsistent with numerous other indicators that point to... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian currencies fall, bond yields rise Most currencies sold off against the US dollar in May. Meanwhile, the region’s bond markets have settled down in recent weeks, after being briefly caught up in the global bond market sell-off earlier... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asian growth eases in Q1 despite lower oil prices Growth in Emerging Asia eased slightly last quarter, despite the boost from lower oil prices. Weak exports haven’t helped, but it has been the reluctance of consumers to spend their windfall from... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China’s gold imports (Apr.) A fall in mainland China’s gold imports from Hong Kong in April has been more than offset by higher imports of the metal by India. Hence, we believe fears of a slowdown in demand from key emerging... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Which EM currencies are misaligned? The Peterson Institute for International Economics is due to publish its latest semi-annual estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates soon. These are likely to suggest that the Turkish lira... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM slowdown shows no sign of abating The slowdown across emerging markets is showing no sign of easing, with our latest GDP Tracker suggesting that growth is now running at 3.7% y/y – its lowest rate since September 2009. Much of the... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Indonesia still looks vulnerable Today’s handover from military to civilian rule in Myanmar marks another welcome step forward in the country’s political development. But the new government must overcome a number of major challenges... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Has Modi already missed his best opportunity? Prime Minister Modi’s first year in office was a mixed bag. The pace of economic reform will need to be stepped up in his second year to justify the investor enthusiasm that greeted his election... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q1) The Philippines economy expanded at its weakest pace in more than three years in Q1, largely owing to a slowdown in export growth. However, we do not see cause for too much alarm. Exports are likely... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
