Emerging Markets Economics Update Cheaper commodities to allow rates to stay lower for longer We estimate that the recent fall in commodity prices could knock 1%-pt off Emerging Market (EM) inflation over the coming months. With slower economic growth set to keep a lid on core inflation in... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Why fuel subsidy reform matters for India and Indonesia Indian consumer price inflation fell to its slowest pace on record in September. With the latest data also pointing to continued weakness in the industrial sector, we remain of the view that interest... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia’s new president has his work cut out Joko Widodo, the outgoing mayor of Jakarta, who takes over as Indonesia’s president on Monday, is seen by some as the man to turn the country’s fortunes around. But while he has attracted plenty of... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The winners and losers from lower oil prices In simple terms, the big winners from the recent drop in oil prices will be those EMs with large energy import bills, while the big losers will be the major oil exporters. But in reality the situation... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Euro-zone holding back recovery (again) Global growth is likely to accelerate slightly next year but to remain well below its pre-crisis average. Strong recoveries in the US and UK will be offset by near-stagnation in the eurozone and Japan... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Today’s cut should mark the end of the loosening cycle in Korea Today’s 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Bank of Korea (BoK) takes the main policy rate back to the all-time low last seen during the global financial crisis. But with growth set to accelerate... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EMs struggle to follow China’s lead Although EM export growth slowed in August, the general trend since the middle of the year has been one of improvement and more timely figures suggest that the recovery resumed last month. However, a... 14th October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore's economy should pick up after soft patch Today’s GDP data showed that Singapore's economy recorded a small expansion in Q3, as manufacturing output stabilised. As long as the recovery in the global economy does not falter, Singapore's growth... 14th October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Dramatic fall in Indian inflation boosts calls for rate cuts Indian consumer price inflation fell to its slowest pace on record in September. With the latest data also pointing to continued weakness in the industrial sector, we remain of the view that interest... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia's budget keeps it on fiscal consolidation path Malaysia's 2015 budget contained no major surprises and marked another step towards fiscal consolidation following fuel subsidy cuts earlier in the month. While the net impact of the Goods and... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Rising Indian demand not enough to boost coal prices Slower economic growth in China and the EU, combined with active efforts by these regions and the US to move away from coal power, have caused coal prices to slump dramatically over the last few... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How our forecasts differ from consensus and the IMF In this Weekly we look at how our GDP forecasts differ from consensus and those recently released by the IMF. In most countries our 2015 growth forecasts are not far out of line, but there are four... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM industry still struggling Industrial production (IP) growth in the emerging world is very weak. In aggregate terms, EM output grew by just 2.0% y/y in August – the slowest rate of growth since the global financial crisis. The... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia's weak labour market to weigh on consumer spending A fall in employment in September, along with revisions to previous months, has left Australia's labour market looking weak, undermining hopes that stronger consumer spending can help compensate for... 9th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Why slower growth is the "new normal" for emerging markets For all the recent talk of a “great moderation” in EM growth, the uncomfortable truth is that the big slowdown in the emerging world actually occurred several years ago. More recently, growth has in... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Steady, if unspectacular, growth ahead Most economies in Emerging Asia are likely to see growth accelerate gradually over the next year, helped by a combination of stronger demand from advanced economies and relatively loose monetary... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
