Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Lower commodity prices bring mixed news for EMs Recent falls in commodity prices have left some emerging market (EM) economies in a tailspin. The S&P GSCI, an index of commodity prices, has fallen by more than 20% since its June peak, largely due... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Missed fiscal target this year would not be all bad news India looks set to miss its fiscal target this year, even in the optimistic case that the government fully delivers on its plans to sell stakes in state-owned companies. But this was always likely... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How vulnerable are other Asian currencies to yen weakness? It is tempting to think that a further sharp fall in Japan’s currency would prompt policymakers in the rest of Asia to try to weaken their own in an effort to maintain their competitiveness. But there... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Equities surge to record highs India’s financial markets have performed well over the past month. Bond yields have fallen, while the rupee has remained stable against the US$. But the big story has been in equity markets, which... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Where next for interest rates in Indonesia? Today’s 25 basis point rate hike by Bank Indonesia (BI) is a direct response to yesterday’s government decision to hike subsidised fuel prices. While we wouldn’t rule out the possibility of another... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia-China FTA will help rebalance Australia’s economy Australia signed a free trade agreement (FTA) with China yesterday that will give its exporters a surprising amount of access to China’s market. The biggest opportunities lie in the agriculture and... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate hikes in Indonesia unlikely despite subsidy cuts Today’s move by Indonesia’s new president to hike fuel prices is an encouraging first step on the road to reform. Although inflation is now likely to rise sharply, any spike should prove temporary... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
India Data Response Trade (Oct.) Given the recent sharp falls in global oil prices, the relatively small narrowing of India’s trade deficit in October is disappointing. A renewed slump in exports is to blame. Looking ahead... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan rate cut not the start of aggressive easing The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) cut its policy rate by 50bp to 9.5% over the weekend, having been encouraged by a recent drop in inflation. But with inflation set to rise again over the coming months... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q3) Thailand's economy continued its lacklustre recovery in the third quarter, with growth picking up only slightly to 0.6% y/y from 0.4% the quarter before. Growth should accelerate further in the coming... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly China-Korea free trade deal is not a game changer The recently announced free-trade deal between Korea and China has generated plenty of optimistic headlines. However, we are sceptical the deal will have much impact, and it certainly isn’t going to... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Oct.) The sharp drop in WPI inflation in October adds to evidence of fading price pressures. It also supports our long-held view that the RBI could begin to cut interest rates earlier than many seem to... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q3) Malaysia's economy slowed in the third quarter, with growth coming in at 5.6% y/y, down from a revised 6.5% the quarter before. We expect growth to slow further in the coming quarters, as the domestic... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Brighter times should lie ahead for EM equities The performance of equities has been lacklustre in emerging markets since the end of September and noticeably worse than in developed markets. As a result, the return so far this year from the MSCI... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Credit bubbles deflate – but at the cost of weaker growth There are encouraging signs that the credit bubbles that had been building in a handful of major EMs are now deflating. But this process has only just begun – and the modest slowdown in credit that we... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Improvement in current account position here to stay The recent sharp falls in gold and oil prices could feasibly push India’s current account into surplus over the coming months. Given that India’s large external deficit made its markets among the... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
