Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack 2015 shaping up to be another lacklustre year The turmoil in Russia and broader weakness in EM financial markets has brought a subdued end to the year. For 2014 as a whole, the latest data point to aggregate GDP growth of less than 5% for the... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Markets raise expectations of rate cuts The recent sharp slowdown in inflation, combined with dovish commentary from the RBI in its policy review earlier this month, have prompted India’s financial markets to price in the rising likelihood... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How did our 2014 forecasts stack up? In our final Weekly of the year we will be outlining our key forecasts for 2015. But this week we take a look back at how we did in 2014. Our downbeat forecasts for growth largely played out, as did... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Data Response Trade (Nov.) India’s trade deficit widened in November as a pick-up in exports wasn’t enough to offset a renewed surge in gold imports. But the overall deficit still remains at sustainable levels, and should... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Sri Lanka GDP (Q3) Sri Lanka recorded another quarter of strong growth in Q3, with the economy expanding by 7.7% y/y, down only slightly from Q2. Looking ahead, a pick-up in private sector credit growth and robust... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Nov.) Wholesale price data for November out today provide more evidence of disinflationary pressures following the release of last month’s CPI data on Friday, and build on the case for the RBI to begin... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Industrial Production (Oct.) Today’s data show that consumer price inflation dropped to its slowest pace on record in November. With the latest numbers also showing continued weakness in industrial output, the case for policy... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Ten key questions for EMs in 2015 The slump in oil prices and renewed falls in EM currencies over the past month have rekindled fears over the outlook for emerging markets. In this Focus we outline the ten key issues that we think... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Are EM corporate bonds really that vulnerable? Since the end of October, emerging market dollar-denominated corporate bonds have performed much worse than comparably-rated US corporate bonds. This has been the result of increasing credit spreads... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Reforming the coal sector remains a difficult prospect The likely part-privatisation of Coal India early next year shows that there is some appetite within government to reform the sector. But this is only a small step towards addressing a myriad of... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korean interest rates to remain on hold until late 2015 Rising levels of household debt suggest further rate cuts by the Bank of Korea, which today left interest rates on hold at 2.0%, are unlikely. In fact, with GDP growth set to accelerate in the coming... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand set for prolonged rate pause The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its policy rate at 3.5% today and suggested rates will be left on hold for some time. We doubt the central bank will raise rates again before Q3 of next... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Falling commodity prices douse the EM export recovery The recent modest recovery in EM exports stalled in October as global growth lost some momentum and sharp falls in commodity prices added to difficulties facing commodity exporters. More timely data... 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Differentiation key to navigating EM sell off The sharp falls in EM equities over the past day or so have rekindled fears of a crisis across the emerging world. While several EMs do look vulnerable to the effects of low oil prices and a stronger... 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation set for another sharp fall Continued steep declines in food and fuel prices, as well as subdued core pressures, mean that consumer price inflation is likely to have dropped to a record low in November. This should bolster calls... 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor External debt unlikely to spur widespread stress An increase in external debt has raised concerns that the emerging world faces a rough ride over the coming years as the dollar strengthens. However, our updated Capital Economic Risk Indicator (CERI)... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
