RBI Watch Will Governor Rajan follow up on early rate cut? Following the RBI’s decision to cut interest rates at an unscheduled meeting earlier this month, a small majority of forecasters expect rates to be kept on hold at the scheduled policy meeting next... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Divergence in EM inflation to widen further in 2015 Inflation has diverged significantly across the emerging world over the past few months. While some economies have slipped into deflation, in a number of countries consumer prices are rising at a... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan's rate cut likely to be the last for some time The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) cut its policy rate by 100bp to 8.5%, the lowest since 2005, over the weekend. Although inflation and money supply growth have both slowed sharply in recent months, we... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Does Singapore’s currency regime still suit its needs? The decision by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to abandon its exchange rate ceiling has created questions about the sustainability of other currency regimes. We think there is little chance of the... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q1 2015) Lower oil prices should provide a welcome boost to incomes, and hence consumption, in large parts of the emerging world. We are particularly upbeat about the outlook for consumers in China, India, the... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q4 Preliminary) Today's advance estimate suggests Korea's economy ended 2014 on a soft note, with growth slowing to a seasonally-adjusted 0.4% q/q in Q4 from 0.9% the quarter before. However, growth should rebound in... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update ECB QE and what it means for emerging markets The programme of asset purchases announced by the European Central Bank (ECB) earlier today was larger than had been expected only a few days ago, but fears that it could fuel destabilising inflows to... 22nd January 2015 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Further rate cuts are on the way The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) shocked markets earlier this month by cutting its main policy rates at an unscheduled meeting. The accompanying statement also paved the way for further policy... 22nd January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Oiling the wheels Global growth has slowed in recent months, but we still expect world GDP to expand by just over 3% this year and next. The slump in oil prices should have a positive impact overall, even though it... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Investors’ enthusiasm for EM assets should return Investors’ retreat from emerging markets over the past month has reflected growing concerns about the implications of the collapse in the price of oil. Admittedly, most countries (and the world as a... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand rate hikes looking more and more distant The recent drop in oil prices is not the only reason to think that consumer price inflation will remain low in New Zealand over the next couple of years. Domestic price pressures are also fading. We... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s new fiscal and growth targets are achievable Most economies in Emerging Asia will benefit from falling oil prices. The big exception is Malaysia, where the government today revised its 2015 forecasts for the budget deficit, GDP growth and the... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Markets buoyed by RBI’s early rate cut Having already made a good start to 2015, India’s financial markets have rallied further following the RBI’s decision to cut interest rates at an unscheduled meeting last week. Bond yields have... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update How are economic reforms progressing? Prime Minister Modi’s use of four executive orders since the end of December has added some impetus to the reform agenda, which has arguably seen the biggest strides made in areas of tax and foreign... 19th January 2015 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Swiss franc most overvalued DM currency after surge? The surge in the Swiss franc that followed the abandonment of the Swiss National Bank’s exchange rate ceiling against the euro means it is now the most overvalued of all the developed market (DM)... 16th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM central banks shift to easing mode Having been in tightening mode at the end of 2014, a number of EM central banks have surprised markets by loosening monetary policy since the start of the year, with policymakers in Romania, India... 16th January 2015 · 1 min read
