Emerging Markets Activity Monitor BRICs remain the EM weak spot Our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate EM GDP expanded at a modest pace of just over 4% y/y in November as the BRIC economies continued to disappoint. Meanwhile, the latest activity figures provide... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update All eyes on the union budget The government’s next budget, due to beannounced on 28th February, has taken on even more importance than normal, with the ReserveBank of India (RBI) looking for fiscal consolidation and investors... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Reasons to be optimistic about Korea’s economy in 2015 Korea stands to be one of Emerging Asia’s biggest beneficiaries from lower oil prices, and will also be boosted by a recovery in the housing market and by expansionary fiscal policy. We think most... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q4) The labour market continues to tighten, as the economic recovery is picking up speed. However, the continued slowdown in inflation suggests that the Bank of Japan still has more work to do. 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How exposed are EMs to contagion from Greece? The fact that the mounting concerns about Greece’s future within the euro-zone have had only a limited impact on financial markets across the emerging world appears to reflect the belief that problems... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Interest rate cuts to be exception rather than rule Expectations that the fall in oil prices will trigger a wave of interest rate cuts across Asia are probably wide of the mark. Admittedly, Pakistan, India and Singapore have each loosened monetary... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rupee strength supports case for policy loosening The rupee has been among the world’s best performing currencies so far this year, due to a combination of a narrowing trade deficit and strong foreign inflows into local equities. This has given the... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update More to cheer than fear from “currency wars” The latest monetary easing in Europe and Asia has revived talk of “currency wars” and fuelled concerns about the impact of dollar strength on the US economy. But much of this talk seems unduly... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q4) The Philippines economy picked up strongly last quarter, largely owing to a rebound in government spending. We expect growth to remain strong in 2015, supported by recent improvements to the business... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand's central bank takes a more neutral stance The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its policy rate at 3.5% today and suggested there is now far less certainty its next move will be a hike. We are not expecting any changes in 2015 or 2016. 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Will the surge in the EMBI+ spread be reversed? The “stripped” spread over US Treasuries of the JP Morgan EMBI+ Index of emerging market dollar-denominated government bonds has risen by a further 40bp over the past month to around 4.2%, well above... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s rate pause to continue through 2015 The Malaysian central bank (BNM) unsurprisingly kept its policy rate on hold at 3.25% today, and is unlikely to make any changes during the rest of this year. There are some concerns about the pace of... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Falling inflation not enough to trigger Thai rate cut The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates unchanged at 2.0% today despite the recent drop in inflation. While dissent within the monetary policy committee has raised the odds of a rate cut, we... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus What do lower oil prices mean for the emerging world? The collapse in global oil prices will provide a boost to most economies in the emerging world. However, it will come at the cost of weaker growth in the Middle East, and deep recessions in Russia and... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Jokowi’s first 100 days: a promising start Indonesia’s new president, Joko Widodo (known as Jokowi) has made an encouraging start to hispresidency. But tougher challenges lie ahead, while a corruption scandal is raising questions about... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore moves early to counter deflation concerns In an unscheduled decision, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) today loosened monetary policy by reducing the slope of its target band for the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER). The change... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
