Asia Economics Update Philippines unlikely to join Asian rate cutting cycle Despite the recent drop in inflation, the central bank in the Philippines is unlikely to join a number of other central banks in the region that have loosened monetary policy since the start of the... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q4) Malaysia's growth picked up to 5.8% y/y in the fourth quarter, compared with 5.6% the quarter before. However, this acceleration will likely prove short-lived as lower oil prices will be a major... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs are most at risk from dollar strength? The US dollar’s recent strong run has raised concerns that EMs with large holdings of dollar-denominated debt will come under pressure. Indeed, India’s central bank governor, Raghuram Rajan, has gone... 11th February 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rebased CPI data won’t change the big picture Forthcoming consumer price inflation data for January will be the first in the rebased series but, unlike the recently revised GDP data, we doubt that this will have a spectacular impact on headline... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q4) At face value, today’s GDP data for Q4 suggest that India’s economy slowed at the end of 2014, but that it is still growing faster than China’s. However, the GDP calculations under the new methodology... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Will more of Asia's central banks join the loosening cycle? There has been a clear shift towards looser monetary policy around the world since late 2014, and several Asian central banks have been part of the trend. Any further moves over the coming months are... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Shifting dynamics in the tin trade Indonesia’s efforts to dictate the tin market look increasingly futile as China finds a new source of tin ore and lifts domestic refined production. However, despite the changing dynamics, the bigger... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q4) Indonesia today reported another quarter of weak GDP growth. The figures underline that the country’s new president, Joko Widodo, faces a tough challenge to reinvigorate the economy, despite a... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Risks skewed towards unexpected rate cuts – for now… Today’s decision by the People’s Bank of China to lower reserve requirements underlines the current heightened risk of policy surprises in the EM world. We continue to think that any further surprise... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing weakness concentrated in the BRICs The latest PMI data suggest that manufacturing activity across the emerging world was stable, but still sluggish, at the start of this year. However, while manufacturers in the BRIC economies are... 3rd February 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI’s rate pause likely to prove short-lived Governor Rajan opted not to follow up on January’s unscheduled rate cut with further loosening in today’s policy review, with the repo and the reverse repo rates kept on hold at 7.75% and 6.75%... 3rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate cut in Australia won't be the last The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut its cash rate for the first time since mid-2013 today, taking it down by 25 basis points to 2.25%. Given the RBA’s change of stance and the likelihood that the... 3rd February 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Taking stock of the GDP revisions Revisions to India’s historic GDP data have been greeted with both cheers and bemusement. One of the more puzzling aspects is that nominal GDP in the last fiscal year was left all but unchanged by the... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The January PMIs for Emerging Asia showed some signs of improvement, suggesting that the region's manufacturing sectors started 2015 on a slightly better note. In the two economies where the PMIs most... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update GDP revisions raise more questions than answers At face value, today’s revisions to India’s historic GDP data suggest that the economy has been performing far better than had previously appeared. If true, this implies there is much less room for a... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian equity markets make winning start to 2015 Emerging Asian equity markets have got off to a strong start to the year, while the performance of Asian currencies has been much more mixed. 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
