India Economics Update Governor Rajan makes case for loosening to continue The Reserve Bank of India’s decision to cut its policy rates today was unscheduled but not entirely a surprise: we had argued that there was a significant chance of an inter-meeting cut following the... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Government’s capital spending plans face hurdles The Finance Ministry’s plans outlined in the Budget to significantly ramp up capital expenditure are to be welcomed, but fully implementing them will be a tough challenge. Potential impediments... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update New monetary framework a positive, but doesn’t alter big picture Although the new monetary policy framework agreed upon by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the government is a positive step, it is also largely symbolic. The framework is unlikely to have much... 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing recovery continues The February PMIs for Emerging Asia were generally encouraging, suggesting that the region's manufacturing conditions are slowly gaining a firmer footing. In the two economies where the PMIs most... 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Faster sales of Thailand’s rice stocks should pull down prices The announcement that the Thai government is planning to clear its rice stockpiles in just two years should put significant downward pressure on rice prices over this time period. 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Time for EM equities to shine? After a tough end to last year, emerging market equities have continued to pick up over the past month. Admittedly, they have lagged behind equities in developed markets, which have performed very... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Where next for Indonesia’s current account? We see little prospect of an improvement in Indonesia’s current account over the next couple of years. This could leave the rupiah vulnerable when the Fed starts to tighten policy later this year... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Bauxite shortfall to support alumina prices Lower bauxite availability, owing to the Indonesian export ban, and dwindling Chinese stocks will impede alumina production this year, leading to higher prices. 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian equity markets continue good run Equity markets in Emerging Asia recorded another month of solid gains in February. Currencies did not fare as well, particularly the Indonesian rupiah, which has continued to weaken against the US... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Falling energy prices push many EMs into deflation Concerns over deflation have started to resurface across the emerging world. But the latest deceleration in inflation has been driven by last year’s plunge in oil prices. Accordingly, we continue to... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Slim hopes for land reform Amid the wider interest in what will be unveiled in the FY15/16 budget on Saturday, prospects for the rest of the current session of parliament have slipped under the radar. A number of issues that... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM slowdown continues Our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate EM GDP growth has dropped to just 4.0% y/y – a low not seen since the aftermath of the global financial crisis in 2009. Much of the latest slowdown appears to... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Tight labour market in Taiwan providing boost to consumption A tight labour market in Taiwan is feeding through to stronger wage growth, which in turn is providing a boost to household consumption. The improving prospects for the consumer sector are a key... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Investors shrug off risks from Greece Despite the resurgent risk of a Greek exit from the euro-zone, investors have so far remained relatively relaxed about the possible effect on emerging markets. Admittedly, there were further net... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Time to worry about deflation? Emerging Asia has seen a sharp drop in inflationary pressures over the past few months. Taiwan, Singapore and Thailand are now experiencing deflation, while inflation is 1% y/y or below in Malaysia... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What to look for in the upcoming budget Investors are likely to focus on plans for fiscal consolidation when the FY15/16 budget is unveiled on Saturday, but progress on economic reform also warrants close attention. The crucial things to... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
