India Chart Pack Signs of continued cyclical weakness Some of the latest data out of India have given reason for cheer, but there is plenty of evidence of continued cyclical weakness. For example, capacity utilisation rates are low, growth in sales of... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Asia Africa Conference irrelevant, but economic ties strengthening This week’s high-profile meeting of African and Asian leaders in Indonesia is unlikely to lead to any concrete measures to boost trade or investment between the two continents. Even so, the crucially... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth sinks as BRICs woes deepen EM growth appears to have sunk to a post-crisis low of around 4% y/y in the first quarter of this year, driven in large part by a deepening downturn in the BRICs. China has grabbed most of the... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q1 Preliminary) The healthy pick-up in Korean growth in the first quarter should lift some of the gloom that has settled over the economy in recent months. What's more, we think growth will strengthen further in the... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the rally in emerging market equities continue? Since the end of Q1, the return from the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has been impressive and eclipsed that from the MSCI World Index of developed market equities. Such outperformance has been a rare... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Equity rally losing steam After touching record highs in early March, Indian equities have fallen back in recent weeks. Looking ahead, with valuations still looking stretched and uncertainty over the government’s tax policy... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update How much of a threat is the surge in gold imports? The surge in gold imports last month is likely to have been boosted by temporary factors, including an unleashing of pent-up demand by buyers that had been expecting tax cuts (which didn’t materialise... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The implications of a fall in EM dollar GDP There is a good chance that emerging market GDP, measured in dollar terms, will fall this year. But while this will weigh on investors’ dollar-denominated returns and could raise debt burdens in EMs... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Not all gloom and doom for Korea's economy The recent run of weak data has increased pessimism about the Korean economy, as reflected by a string of downgrades to its 2015 growth forecasts. But while the consensus now expects growth to soften... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China’s slowdown ripples across emerging world The effects of slower growth in China are already rippling across the emerging world. Indeed, while China’s economy is still growing by anywhere between 5–7% y/y depending on whose numbers you choose... 20th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Trade (Mar.) Data released today show that India’s trade deficit widened in March, but remained at sustainable levels. The more worrying aspect is the collapse in exports, which leaves the government’s longer term... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export performance remains dire Although EM exports contracted less sharply in February, the improvement was almost entirely down to a surge in China’s exports, which have been distorted by shifts in the timing of Chinese New Year... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Uncertainty over tax policy could stifle private investment Comments from Finance Minister Arun Jaitley that he plans to raise nearly US$6.5bn by retrospectively taxing foreign companies would, if acted upon, represent a major relapse on economic reforms, and... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Lessons from history: is a debt problem brewing in EMs? We have been warning about the dangers stemming from rapid credit growth in several EMs for a while. In this Focus we revisit the possible lessons from history. Three points stand out – with... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update India overtaking China – what is all the fuss about? Among the more headline-grabbing developments in the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook is that the Fund is now forecasting India’s economy to grow faster than China’s in 2015 and 2016. But putting... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
