Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Risks building in China, Venezuela in crisis The relief rally in Chinese equities prompted by additional policy stimulus has turned global sentiment around, but a sustained recovery in commodity prices will probably require hard evidence that... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Vietnam GDP (Q2) Vietnam’s economy continued down the path to recovery in the second quarter, led by robust growth in the manufacturing sector. We are nudging up our growth forecast for this year to reflect the... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Capital injections too small to revive banking sector The government’s plans to inject more capital into local banks are a positive step, but they are too limited to revive the ailing sector. Larger capital injections are needed to strengthen banks’... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap European frontiers vulnerable to mounting threat of “Grexit” The growing threat of a Greek exit from the euro-zone has cast a shadow over the outlook for European frontier markets. Admittedly, the reaction in financial markets has so far been muted. And the... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korean government responds to MERS threat The Korean government’s proposed fiscal stimulus package comes in response to the growing threat on the economy posed by the outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS). Although details of... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EMs can weather Fed lift-off – problems could come later With a Fed rate hike sometime this year now widely anticipated, we suspect that any volatility in EM markets when the Fed finally raises rates should prove short-lived. The much bigger risk for... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Tentative signs of recovery Some of India's latest activity data are showing signs of improvement. For example, industrial production has accelerated over the past few months. Measures of expenditure and income tell a similar... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Could Asia be suffering from “bad” deflation after all? A handful of Asian economies have been experiencing deflation for several months now, leading some commentators to suggest that a lasting and damaging period of falling prices lies ahead. However, we... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia heading in the wrong direction Recent measures to boost growth in Indonesia have failed to address the main structural factors that are holding the economy back. Unless the government changes its approach, we see little prospect of... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate cuts likely in Indonesia before year-end Bank Indonesia (BI) today left its main policy rate on hold at 7.50% against a backdrop of slowing growth, high inflation and a weakening currency. We doubt there will be any changes in interest rates... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Weak EM exports keep concerns over global demand alive Most of the weakness in emerging market exports in recent months can be pinned on the impact of lower commodity prices and the strength of the US dollar. But there are lingering concerns surrounding... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fed tightening and EMs: risks revisited Yesterday’s statement by US Fed officials suggests that the FOMC is still on course to raise interest rates at September’s meeting. EM financial markets have taken this in their stride today and... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Modest rise in MSP strengthens case for another rate cut The small rise in guaranteed prices for crops produced during the monsoon season that was announced by the government yesterday marks an important step away from populist policymaking of the past... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Is the government’s FDI policy bearing fruit? The lifting of restrictions on foreign direct investment into a number of sectors of the economy has been one of the successes of Prime Minister Modi’s reform agenda so far. FDI inflows have picked up... 17th June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Deterioration in Thai stocks to boost rice prices The disposal of Thailand’s remaining high-quality rice stocks should keep prices under pressure in the near-term. However, with the world market expected to tighten in 2015/16, prices should start to... 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Assessing the potential economic impact of MERS in Korea Based on the limited data available so far it looks like Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) has already taken a toll on Korea’s economy. In this Update, we outline our best and worse case... 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
