Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs, financial risks and the Fed With the Fed leaving the door open to another interest rate hike at June’s FOMC meeting, focus is starting to shift once again to financial vulnerabilities in EMs. A handful of countries are likely to... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q1) The slowdown in Indonesia's economy last quarter reflects significant headwinds that we think will keep growth stuck at around 5% for the next couple of years. 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry still in better shape than at start of the year There were sharp drops in the manufacturing PMIs in Brazil and India last month, which pulled down the aggregate EM figure. That said, in both countries this seems to reflect survey data catching up... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) Manufacturing conditions in Emerging Asia remained lacklustre in April. In the two economies where the PMIs most closely track the hard data, there are some signs of stabilisation in Korea’s... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The drop in India's manufacturing PMI in April provides another reminder that local industry continues to face significant headwinds. 2nd May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Growth in Sri Lanka to slow despite IMF deal The IMF today announced that it has reached a staff-level agreement with Sri Lanka on a three-year US$1.5bn loan. The deal should help Sri Lanka avoid a balance of payments crisis and stabilise... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Could Asia’s central banks get unconventional? There have been a number of suggestions recently that some central banks in Emerging Asia, namely in Taiwan and Korea, might be about to adopt some of the unconventional policy measures that are being... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q1 Advanced) Today’s GDP figures confirm that Taiwan’s economy is struggling badly, with GDP contracting by 0.8% y/y in the first quarter of the year. Given that policymakers are running out of room to stimulate... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysian ringgit rebound continues Most currencies and equity markets are up so far this month. The Malaysian ringgit has continued to rebound strongly, but political uncertainty ahead of presidential elections in the Philippines is... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor BRICs drive pick-up in EM growth Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth has turned a corner, with the BRIC economies leading the way. Looking ahead, we think that the BRICs will continue to drive a recovery in EM growth. We expect... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Assessing the impact of a strong monsoon Early forecasts of a stronger-than-normal monsoon in India this year have raised hopes of a boost to GDP growth and a drop in inflation as agricultural production gets ramped up. But the early... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Drought hits agricultural output in Thailand and Vietnam Vietnam and Thailand are facing their worst drought in decades, with water levels in the Mekong River at their lowest since 1926. The drought is already having an impact on growth. A decline in... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka holds rates, but hikes likely soon The central bank in Sri Lanka (CBSL) today held its deposit and lending rates at 6.5% and 8.0%, respectively. But with credit growing rapidly and core inflation high, we expect rate hikes to come back... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India’s gold imports (Mar.) Gold imports by both China and India slumped in the first quarter. While imports have been undeniably weak so far in 2016, we expect buying to pick up later in the year in part due to the release of... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency effects begin to unwind The effects of sharp falls in EM exchange rates since 2014 – which pushed inflation up to multi-year highs in a number of major economies – are now starting to fade. Assuming there isn’t another big... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q1 Preliminary) Korea’s economy lost further momentum in the first quarter of 2016, but we expect a modest recovery in exports as well as supportive policies to help prop up growth in the coming quarters . 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
