India Economics Weekly Maharashtra vote, RBI, a big call on Indian equities For the past three years India has been the darling of global investors, but its stock market has come under pressure in recent weeks amid signs of a bubble forming and we've made a big call that... 29th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Coffee price 🏒; OPEC+ in can-kicking mode Fans of hockey-stick graphs would appreciate recent developments in the coffee market, where prices have surged by 30%+ this month on the back of poor growing weather in Brazil. History suggests that... 29th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly States to defy Trump; COP29 wrap-up; EV crossroads Trump’s election victory means that states will have to take the lead on climate policy to push the green transition forward, as progress on the federal level looks unlikely. Meanwhile, weakness in... 29th November 2024 · 5 mins read
India Rapid Response India GDP (Q3 2024) GDP figures show the economy slowed sharply last quarter, and we expect economic activity to struggle over the coming quarters. That bolsters the case for policy loosening, but the recent jump in... 29th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update US import tariffs: your questions answered We held an online session on US import tariffs on 26th November. (See a recording here ). In this Update we answer the questions we were most asked. 29th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Asia Chart Pack (November 2024) With GDP growth set to struggle and inflation to remain low, central banks are likely to continue to cut interest rates over the coming months. Overall, we expect most central banks to cut rates by... 29th November 2024 · 0 mins read
China Economics Weekly China: Fentanyl curbs, CNY intervention, tech milestone China is likely to intensify its crackdown on fentanyl in a bid to avoid the additional 10% tariff threatened by Trump. The PBOC has drawn a line in the sand for the renminbi around 7.33/$ but would... 29th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan will hike rates further to 1.25% by 2026 The pick-up in inflation excluding fresh food and energy in Tokyo in November points to the nationwide measure rising further above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. With the yen set to remain weak for... 29th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Market (Oct. 2024) & Tokyo CPI (Nov. 2024) The Tokyo CPI suggests that inflation excluding fresh food and energy rose further above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target in November, supporting our long-held view that the Bank will hike rates in... 28th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Further interest rate cuts likely next year in Korea The Bank of Korea cut interest rates again today by a further 25bps (to 3.00%) and made clear in its statement that more easing is on the way. We are sticking with our view that the central bank will... 28th November 2024 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: New model points to weaker growth in China We’re launching an updated version of our China Activity Proxy this month, alongside an interactive dashboard that gives clients access to the data. Our expanded model suggests that China’s growth so... 27th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (November 2024) EM GDP growth ticked up in Q3 but is likely to fall short of expectations over the coming quarters as stimulus in China disappoints and still-tight monetary policy takes it toll. For most EMs, a... 27th November 2024 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update ​​Canada, China and Mexico in Trump’s firing line​ President-elect Donald Trump’s first threatened tariffs since the election are designed to extract concessions on drug trafficking and illegal border crossings, which means it may be possible for the... 26th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov. 2024) Amid the Trump Trade, capital outflows from EM financial markets have persisted over recent weeks. Looking ahead, we expect the US dollar to strengthen further, suggesting that outflows will continue... 26th November 2024 · 2 mins read
