Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency falls compound inflation troubles for some EMs While inflation in the EM world is low on average, there are big divergences. In particular, many of the economies already struggling with high inflation are also those that have seen their currencies... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Another drop in frontier market currencies Uncertainty over the outlook for monetary policy in the US and renewed concerns about the health of China’s economy are weighing heavily on frontier market currencies. The weakest currency has again... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Watch India’s new gold schemes not yet a game changer On 10th September the Indian parliament approved the launch of the Gold Monetisation Scheme (GMS) and the Sovereign Gold Bond Scheme (SGBS). The GMS and the SGBS have been introduced in an attempt to... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam – a rare bright spot At a time when growth in most of Emerging Asia is slowing, Vietnam stands out as one of the region’s few bright spots. Although we expect the country’s strong performance to continue over the next... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan cuts rates, further loosening unlikely A sharp slowdown in growth and very weak price pressures were the two key factors behind the decision of Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) to cut interest rates by 12.5 basis points to 1.75% at its meeting... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Another rate cut likely With recent activity data weak and inflation low, the consensus has swung around to our long-held view that the Reserve Bank of India will cut interest rates again this year, with the upcoming meeting... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus The Philippines needs to invest more Economic growth across large parts of Emerging Asia has slowed over the past couple of years. One important exception to this trend is the Philippines, where a strong recent performance has raised... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Time to worry about a weak rupiah? The Indonesian rupiah has fallen again over the past week, hitting a fresh 17-year low against the US dollar. The sharp drop in the currency, which is down by a cumulative 33% since the start of 2013... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Financial risks still low in most Ems Our Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) suggests that, for all the recent talk of an “EM crisis”, financial risks in most of the emerging world are low. There is certainly nothing in the CERI to... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack FM Jaitley is playing a risky game India’s Finance Ministry continues to tread on dangerous ground by becoming increasingly vocal in its calls for further monetary easing. Most recently in an interview over the weekend, Finance... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Signs of improvement in Indonesia After a disappointing first ten months to Joko Widodo’s presidency, there are encouraging signs that policymaking in Indonesia is finally starting to improve. However, we will need to see further... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Policies to promote FDI are paying dividends Measures taken by the government to encourage foreign direct investment into India are showing signs of success. Net FDI inflows rose last quarter to their highest level as a share of GDP since Q4... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia rate cut likely by end of the year With the Fed possibly poised to hike interest rates later in the day, Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to keep its key policy rate on hold at 7.5% was no great surprise. Going forward, with inflation... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM debt: Where do the risks lie? The decision by S&P to downgrade Brazil’s sovereign debt rating to junk last week has refocused attention on EM debt burdens. As it happens, we have been warned about rising debt levels in Brazil for... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM industry in the doldrums Industrial production growth in the emerging world remains very weak, with our aggregate measure of EM industrial output expanding by just 2.2% y/y in the three months to July – the slowest pace since... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Sri Lanka GDP (Q2) We would be wary of reading too much into today’s GDP figures from Sri Lanka,which suggest the economy accelerated sharply in the second quarter. The country’s statistical office has recently rebased... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
