India Chart Pack Reform agenda fails to launch in 2015 On the face of it, 2015 has been a decent year for the Indian economy. Admittedly, activity indicators are pointing to a slow and bumpy recovery, but conditions have undoubtedly improved following... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities remain low The widening in India’s current account deficit in Q3 was due in large part to seasonal patterns. Over a four-quarter sum, the deficit narrowed and, given also that FDI inflows remain strong, there is... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack ASEAN Economic Community is no game changer The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) formally takes effect on 31st December and aims to transform ASEAN into a single market and production base, which its supporters hope will one day enable it to... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Argentina goes orthodox The inauguration of President Mauricio Macri has brought about a shift towards more orthodox economic policymaking in Argentina. Over a decade of populist and interventionist macroeconomic policy has... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Latest oil price fall will keep inflation lower for longer Inflation still looks likely to rise in most EMs next year, despite the recent slump in oil prices. However, the rebound will now be more gradual, which will allow central banks in most economies to... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What to expect from Asia in 2016 A slump in exports, slowing growth and falling currencies made for a grim 2015. But will next year be any better? In this final Weekly of the year, we outline our key calls for 2016. 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is Taiwan’s rate cutting cycle over? Today’s decision by Taiwan’s central bank (the CBC) to cut its main policy rate by 12.5 basis points to 1.625% reflects concern over the current weakness of the economy. Looking ahead, we are... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth steady as Fed starts to tighten Emerging market (EM) growth remained fairly stable in October, as it has for much of the year. Looking ahead, we expect EM growth to pick up a touch in 2016, even as the Fed tightens monetary policy. 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to cut rates early next year Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its key policy rate on hold today at 7.50%, but dropped the clearest signal yet that an interest rate cut is not far away. We are maintaining our view that the central bank... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Markets take Fed tightening in their stride Financial markets in India have taken yesterday's decision by the US Fed to hike interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade in their stride. A bigger test might come if the Fed now tightens... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What is holding up the Goods and Services Tax? Passage of the long-awaited Goods and Services Tax (GST) in India continues to be delayed by major issues ranging from disagreements over the tax rate itself to which items will be covered. Given this... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s monetary policy to stay loose throughout 2016 The Bank of Thailand (BoT) unsurprisingly kept its policy rate on hold at 1.50% today ahead of the upcoming US rate decision and amid signs of a stabilising domestic economy. With price pressures... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit looks sustainable despite export weakness India’s trade deficit remained stable in November as the continued slump in exports was offset by another collapse in imports. With this trend set to continue, the overall current account position... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Sri Lanka GDP (Q3) We would be wary of reading too much into today’s GDP figures from Sri Lanka, which suggest the economy slowed sharply in the third quarter. The country’s statistical office has recently rebased its... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What do the latest falls in oil prices mean for Asia? The boost to regional growth from the recent slide in global oil prices is likely to be quite small unless consumers decide to spend rather than save the latest windfall. 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fed tightening & EMs: what to watch for The likelihood that the Fed will begin to raise interest rates this week has sparked fresh concerns about the knock-on impact on emerging markets. However, we think that most EMs are now well placed... 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
