India Chart Pack “Make in India” 2.0 still little more than a sound bite Prime Minister Narendra Modi's revamped “Make in India” programme aimed at turning the country into a global manufacturing and export powerhouse got off to a high-profile start during last week’s... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Policymakers unfazed by rupee slide The Indian rupee has depreciated against the US dollar so far in 2016 to its weakest level since the 2013 "taper tantrum". But unlike three years ago, there is little reason for policymakers to panic. 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Was the EM boom built on sand? Rapid EM growth in the 2000s was driven by a wave of liberalising reforms that produced genuine economic transformation across the emerging world, but potential growth has now slowed. Accordingly... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka’s tightening cycle just starting The central bank in Sri Lanka (CBSL) has delivered a surprise by hiking both its policy interest rates by 50bp. Against a backdrop of rapid credit growth, building price pressures and currency... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asian growth holding up well despite export slowdown The recent weakness of Asian exports has stoked fears about the region’s growth prospects. However, regional GDP growth remained stable in the fourth quarter of 2015. Strong domestic demand is likely... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Worst should be over for EM exports The value of EM exports dropped by more than a trillion dollars last year but the pace of contraction eased in Q4. We expect further improvements in 2016 as global demand strengthens. 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Are EM oil producers on the cusp of a crisis? A wave of debt defaults and financial stress in emerging market oil producers seems unlikely but, with energy prices set to stay low, growth is likely to be much weaker than most anticipate. Among the... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia likely to cut one more time Bank Indonesia today cut its main policy rate by 25 basis points to 7.00%. We believe that one more cut is likely in this cycle. Today’s statement hints that, as long as the recent market calm... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q4) Malaysia’s economy slowed further in Q4, with growth dropping to 4.5% y/y from 4.7% the quarter before. Against a backdrop of low commodity prices and high household debt, the slowdown looks set to... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Budget preview: deficit targets under pressure The key point of interest in the upcoming budget will be whether the finance ministry implements the large public sector pay rise that the 7 th Pay Commission recommended. We think it will and, with... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What measures are needed to revive the banking sector? Comments last week from RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan that local banks are in need of "deep surgery" has refocused attention on the ailing sector. Large-scale capital injections, increased private... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Lower soy oil premium to undermine China’s palm oil demand Despite a slump in Malaysian exports to China, overall Chinese palm oil demand has remained strong. However, the increased competitiveness of soy oil is likely to weigh on Chinese demand for imported... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Aggregate EM capital outflows stood at over $100bn in January and, on a quarterly rolling basis, they increased to a third of a trillion dollars, a record figure by some distance. This continued to be... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea to maintain wait and see stance The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its policy rate unchanged at a record low of 1.50% today against a backdrop of heightened financial market volatility. While we can’t rule out a rate cut in the coming... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit to remain in check despite weak export prospects India’s trade deficit narrowed at the start of 2016 as the continued slump in exports was more than offset by another collapse in imports. With a number of factors likely to keep commodity imports in... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jan.) Wholesale price inflation unexpectedly dropped in January but, looking ahead, it still looks set to return to positive territory in Q1. 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
