Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (July 2024) EM recoveries have been stronger than expected this year, but growth in aggregate will slow over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Emerging Asia the outperformer... 18th July 2024 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Third Plenum fails to resolve policy tensions China’s leadership has promised to continue comprehensively deepening reform in a wide range of areas. But there are few signs that the just concluded Third Plenum marks a major change in the... 18th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia Policy Rate (July 2024) Bank Indonesia today left its policy rate unchanged at 6.25%, but the central bank’s dovish commentary supports our view that rates will be cut in Q4. Today’s decision was correctly predicted by all... 17th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Demographics are not destiny in the Philippines Newly-published data show that the Philippines has entered a demographic sweet spot that could provide a big boost to economic growth. But this will only happen if enough new jobs can be created for... 16th July 2024 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China GDP (Q2) & Activity (Jun. 2024) Weaker-than-expected official GDP figures show that China’s economy lost momentum in Q2. But we doubt this marks the beginning of a renewed downturn just yet – a step up in fiscal stimulus and... 15th July 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC narrows rate corridor, overcapacity worsens The PBOC’s expanded open market operations effectively narrow the interest rate corridor for short-term interbank rates. This won’t have any immediate consequences for monetary conditions. But it does... 12th July 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea: assessing the impact of the strike at Samsung Even if the strike by workers at Samsung Electronics is brought to an end soon, it has served to highlight once again the inflexibility of Korea’s labour market and the poor state of industrial... 12th July 2024 · 7 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jun.) Both bank loan and broad credit growth hit a record low in June. While further fiscal loosening may provide some support to credit growth in the near-term, the continued weakness of the property... 12th July 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Jun. 2024) Export values grew y/y at the fastest pace in 15 months, with export volumes hitting record highs. We think exports will stay robust in the near term despite increased Western tariffs. Import volumes... 12th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Singapore Q2 GDP (advance estimate) GDP growth in Singapore remained below trend during the second quarter and we expect this to persist in the near term as the cooling labour market, elevated interest rates and weak global growth... 12th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update What next for the Indonesian rupiah? A narrowing of the current account deficit and a decline in the share of government bonds held by non-residents means the rupiah is much less exposed to sudden shifts in global risk appetite than in... 11th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Dovish hold from the Bank of Korea, cuts coming soon The Bank of Korea left its policy rate unchanged today at 3.5%, but dropped clear hints that interest rate cuts would be coming soon. With growth set to struggle and inflation likely to fall further... 11th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update AI and friendshoring boosting (some) Asian exporters Exports from Taiwan, Korea and Vietnam have surged over the past 18 months, thanks to strong demand for AI-related products and friendshoring. In contrast, shipments from the rest of the region have... 10th July 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun. 2024) Consumer price inflation edged down in June. Producer price deflation eased but this was entirely due to base effects. We still expect a slight uptick in CPI inflation over the coming months but... 10th July 2024 · 2 mins read
