Commodities Update

China’s appetite for gold will support prices in 2025

Given the deterioration in the outlook for Chinese equities and the prospect of a markedly weaker renminbi, China’s demand for gold in 2025 will be stronger than we had previously expected. In turn...

17th December 2024 · 3 mins read

China Economic Outlook

China Outlook: Stimulus bounce will be short-lived

China’s leadership has signalled that policy will be loosened further, which will provide a near-term prop to activity. But we still expect China’s growth to slow next year, because of the more...

17th December 2024 · 16 mins read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (December 2024)

After a stellar run, India’s economy has entered a softer patch that will continue for a few more quarters. We think that will portend an underperformance in local equities relative to other major...

17th December 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (December 2024)

EM GDP growth picked up in the second half of the year but faces headwinds in 2025 from tight policy at home and challenges abroad. Our growth forecasts generally sit below the consensus. Monetary...

16th December 2024 · 1 min read

China Rapid Response

China Activity & Spending (Nov. 2024)

China’s economy appears to have slowed last month, despite tailwinds from recent policy easing. Growth still looks on course to pick up this quarter, but the disappointing November data underscores...

16th December 2024 · 3 mins read

Asia Economic Outlook

Asia Outlook: More rate cuts coming

We expect another year of below-trend and below-consensus GDP growth in most of Asia in 2025, as tight fiscal policy and weak exports weigh on output. In China, a slowdown in construction will act as...

13th December 2024 · 28 mins read

Commodities Outlook

Weak market fundamentals; geopolitics the wildcard

Most energy and industrial metals prices will fall in 2025 as structural headwinds to demand build and supply rises. Geopolitical developments remain a key uncertainty and it is easy to think of...

13th December 2024 · 23 mins read

Capital Daily

How the yen might affect Japan’s stock market next year

The recent breakdown in the relationship between yen/dollar and the relative performance of stock markets in Japan and the US in local-currency (LC) terms makes it hard to predict how these stock...

13th December 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Weekly

China policy support is not enough to lift prices

Despite announcements of stronger policy support from China, we do not think these will be enough to lift commodity prices amid growing structural headwinds to demand. With oil demand likely to...

13th December 2024 · 4 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.)

China's November credit data show that monetary easing is still struggling to put a floor under borrowing. We doubt that the further rate cuts China’s leadership promised this week will do much to...

13th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Asia Weekly: Close call for the Bank of Thailand

The coming week sees scheduled central bank meetings in Pakistan, Thailand, Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines. We are expecting holds in Indonesia and Taiwan, but cuts in the rest. The closest...

13th December 2024 · 8 mins read

India Economics Weekly

India Weekly: Stars align for February repo rate cut

The change in leadership at the RBI, along with the drop in headline CPI inflation in November reported this week, mean the stars are aligning for a repo rate cut in February.

13th December 2024 · 3 mins read

China Economics Weekly

China Weekly: CEWC flags boosting consumption as top priority

The full readout from the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) adds weight to the idea that China’s leadership is shifting its focus toward supporting consumption. But it still appears too fixated...

13th December 2024 · 6 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Japan Weekly: Tankan adds to case for December hike

We’re in a minority of analysts expecting the Bank of Japan to hike rates next week. But the ongoing labour shortages and strength of output price pressures flagged in today’s Tankan have only made a...

13th December 2024 · 5 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Tankan (Q4 2024)

The mediocre increase in business conditions across all firm sizes in the latest Tankan suggests that the activity is unlikely to rebound meaningfully this quarter, following a slowdown in Q3. The...

13th December 2024 · 2 mins read