Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports recover as commodity prices stabilise South Africa’s manufacturing PMI fell dramatically last month. The sharp fall in the measure of future conditions suggests that hopes of a swift improvement in the country’s economic and political... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Shift away from US could damage Philippines’ economy The Philippines’ shift towards closer ties with China is unlikely to bring many economic benefits to the country. And by upsetting the US there is a risk that President Duterte undermines a much more... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Reform progress in Indonesia not enough to revive growth Despite the progress Joko Widodo has made in pushing through some important economic reforms during his first two years in office, we see little prospect of a sustained rebound in economic growth in... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further easing set to be gradual as Bank Indonesia cuts again Today’s decision by Bank Indonesia (BI) to reduce its main policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% is unlikely to mark the end of its rate cutting cycle. However, further loosening is likely to be... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Bond market boosted by dovish RBI Indian bonds have continued to rally this month after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) delivered a surprise rate cut and left the door open for further loosening. However, we fear that policy could be... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What does the new estimate of the neutral rate tell us? While the RBI is probably correct in suggesting that global neutral interest rates have fallen, this does not necessarily mean that India’s own neutral rate has fallen too, as the RBI suggested when... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Assessing the economic fallout from Samsung’s problems The recent problems at Samsung Electronics, which culminated in last week’s decision to scrap production of its premium Note 7 smartphone, could shave around 0.1-0.2% percentage points off GDP growth... 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of the surge in EM foreign currency debt sales Sovereign foreign currency bond sales by emerging markets could top $100bn this year although, outside a couple of vulnerable countries, it seems unlikely that these will cause future debt problems. 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Exports showing signs of recovery Trade data for September showed the strongest annual growth in export values in almost two years. Looking ahead, exports should continue to recover, but the government’s target of nearly doubling... 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world eased a little last month, and they remain well below the levels seen earlier in the year. 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Malaysia to signal continued commitment to fiscal discipline The Malaysian government is likely to prioritise maintaining fiscal discipline over supportingthe weak economy at its upcoming budget. 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Sep.) Indian wholesale price inflation edged down in September, but we expect it to resume accelerating over the coming months. The big picture is that there is still little room for further policy... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Monetary policy in Singapore to stay unchanged for some time The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) today left its monetary policy settings unchanged, having loosened policy at its last meeting in April. With the economy set to exit deflation over the coming... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The end of the Golden Age Widespread expectations for a sustained rebound in emerging market growth after the slowdown of recent years will be disappointed. The 2000s were a transient “Golden Age” for the emerging world, with... 13th October 2016 · 20 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The fall in India’s consumer price inflation rate last month is likely to fuel talk of further rate cuts. However, if the RBI pulls the trigger and loosens policy again, it could ultimately backfire... 13th October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update King’s death casts shadow over Thailand The death of Thailand’s highly-revered king will plunge the country into a state of mourning, and also deep political uncertainty. There is a risk that political tensions flare up, triggering a... 13th October 2016 · 1 min read
