Asia Economics Weekly Inflation to rise, but interest rates to remain low Inflation is set to continue rising across Emerging Asia as the effects of past falls in oil prices drop out of the annual comparison. However, we doubt the increase will be large enough to worry most... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Assessing the early impact of demonetisation Despite many anecdotal reports of turmoil in the wake of last week’s surprise demonetisation, and undoubted hardship for many, the early evidence suggests that the economic impact of the move has been... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM exports after the Golden Era Last month, we published a Focus outlining why we think the golden era for EM growth has passed and why the emerging world is set for structurally weaker growth. In this Focus, we explain why the same... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia holds rates, easing cycle nearing an end Bank Indonesia (BI) today left interest rates on hold at 4.75% and made clear that its focus is currently on maintaining a stable exchange rate rather than supporting the economy. With rate hikes in... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q3) GDP data showed that the Philippines economy remains in good health, with growth picking up again in Q3. Looking ahead, the foundations are in place for growth to remain strong, but recent political... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Trumpflation, the dollar and EM balance sheets The jump in the dollar caused by the so-called “Trumpflation” trade is unlikely to cause widespread or systemic problems in the emerging world, but several EMs do look vulnerable. The most exposed are... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update External position healthy despite wider trade deficit Although the monthly trade deficit widened a touch in October, a number of factors should keep it in check over the coming months. This should keep India’s financial markets relatively secure in the... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Tepid recovery for EM trade as protectionist threats mount The year-on-year contraction in EM trade growth seen in recent years is easing as values stabilise. But trade growth will not return to the rapid rates seen before 2012. A move towards protectionism... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The further fall in India’s consumer price inflation last month, along with the likely shock to demand from the government’s withdrawal of most bank notes, is likely to increase the clamour for... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Oct.) Indian wholesale price inflation edged down in October, but we expect it to resume accelerating over the coming months. The big picture is that there is still little room for further policy loosening. 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s political crisis deepens Korea’s political crisis has continued to deepen and looks likely to drag on, possibly for months. For the economy though, little has changed. The outlook was already difficult, with a lame duck... 14th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Picking apart the post-Trump sell-off The sell-off in EM markets following Donald Trump’s victory appears to have been driven by a general rise in investor risk aversion, rather than specific concerns over a shift towards greater trade... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Five questions (and answers) about Trump and Asia Donald Trump’s surprise election victory has created a great deal of uncertainty for the region. In this Weekly, we answer five key questions. 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world declined a little last month, and were barely a third of the size seen earlier in the year. The sell-off in EM financial markets... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Taking stock of the reaction to Trump Financial markets in Mexico have slumped since Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election was confirmed on Wednesday, but losses in many other emerging markets (EMs) have so far not been... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) Industrial production data for September suggest that, in contrast to the upbeat message from the strong GDP data, Indian industry continues to struggle. 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
