Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) Emerging Asia’s PMIs were a mixed bag in December. Focusing on the two economies where the PMIs most closely track the hard data, the recovery in Taiwan’s manufacturing sector appears to have... 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q4 Advanced) Today’s advanced estimate of Singapore’s fourth quarter GDP suggests the economy avoided a technical recession at the end of last year. However, rising interest rates and lacklustre global demand will... 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Loose monetary policy fuels risks in Vietnam Q4 GDP figures for Vietnam, which are due to be published sometime over the next couple of weeks, are likely to show the economy is continuing to expand at a rapid rate. However, the risks facing the... 23rd December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian markets weather first US rate hike in a year Asian financial markets took last week’s resumption of the US Fed’s tightening cycle in their stride, but bigger tests are likely to come in 2017 if, as we expect, the Fed raises rates further than... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What to expect in 2017 The past year has been a mixed one for Asian economies, with buoyant domestic demand helping to compensate for continued weak export growth. But will next year be any better? In our penultimate Weekly... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Export rebound continues, but government target too ambitious Trade data for November show that export values continued to recover last month. Looking ahead, export growth should remain positive, but the government’s target of nearly doubling export values from... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia holds rates, currency worries to remain a constraint Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to keep its policy rate on hold at 4.75% today demonstrates the central bank’s focus remains on supporting the rupiah. With interest rates in the US likely to rise... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Sri Lanka GDP (Q3) GDP growth in Sri Lanka recovered in the third quarter of 2016, but with fiscal and monetary policy set to tighten further next year, a strong rebound is unlikely. 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea holds rates, but cut in 2017 likely The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% today, but with the growth outlook deteriorating and inflation benign, we expect a rate cut in 2017. 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM markets regain their poise, but risks remain Financial markets in the emerging world have generally stabilised since the initial shock of Donald Trump’s election victory last month. But with Trump yet to take office, investors are likely to... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) The drop in CPI inflation in November can be attributed to the government’s demonetisation measures, but today’s data don’t indicate that disruption to the economy has been as dramatic as some reports... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Fed tightening unlikely to cause major problems for EMs Our proprietary indicator of EM financial risk remains close to a 13-year low, which should help to reassure anyone concerned about a spate of crises across the emerging world in 2017. In particular... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world reached a ten-month high of $75bn last month. This was driven mainly by an acceleration in outflows from China, but it seems that... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) Indian industrial production data for October suggest that the sector was struggling even prior to the government’s demonetisation measures. 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia well-placed to weather Fed rate hikes For most countries in Emerging Asia an increase in US interest rates is not a major cause for concern. However, aggressive Fed tightening could cause problems in Hong Kong, Malaysia and Indonesia. 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Demonetisation could boost inflation over longer term We think that consumer price inflation dropped in November as the government’s demonetisation measures are likely to have led to some price discounting. However, demonetisation could boost inflation... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
