Asia Economics Update Sri Lankan rates on hold, but further hikes can’t be ruled out Sri Lanka’s central bank left interest rates on hold today, and the less hawkish tone of the statement suggests the central bank’s tightening cycle may be nearing an end. We are changing our forecast... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Winners and losers from the latest drop in oil Within the EM world, the main beneficiaries of the recent drop in oil prices are Korea, India, Turkey, and South Africa, while the biggest losers are the Gulf States, Russia and Nigeria. That being... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Steady as she goes The latest economic data from across the emerging world have been mixed but our EM GDP Tracker suggests that growth has levelled off at around 4% y/y. While China’s growth has now passed its peak... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly No need to panic over rapid credit growth in the Philippines The recent acceleration in credit growth in the Philippines is unlikely to lead the central bank (BSP) to hike interest rates at its meeting on Thursday. However, it could prompt the BSP to introduce... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Asia well placed to withstand Fed interest rate hikes The US Fed looks almost certain to raise interest rates at its meeting later today. For most of Emerging Asia, higher rates in the US do not pose a major threat, even if the US Fed ends up hiking... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines and Taiwan Consumer Prices (May) The fall in Philippines inflation from 3.4% y/y in April to 3.1% y/y in May adds weight to our view that it is now past its peak. The modest decline was a touch lower than our forecast of 3.2%... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update More to structural EM weakness than investment behaviour Our view that EMs have entered a period of structurally weaker growth has started to become the mainstream, but there is a tendency to misdiagnose this as solely a problem of deficient investment... 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What to make of Korea’s supplementary budget? South Korea’s new government today announced plans for a supplementary budget worth 11.2trn won (0.7% of GDP). But with parliament approval by no means guaranteed, we are not raising our growth... 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Policy rates to remain low for longer than consensus expects The region’s rate cutting cycle has come to an end, but with inflation set to remain fairly subdued, interest rates are likely to remain low for some time yet. 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) Most of Emerging Asia’s manufacturing PMIs slipped in May, but we doubt this marks the start of a significant downturn in Asian manufacturing. 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian equities continue strong run Asian equity markets have outperformed other EM markets over the past month, with bourses in Korea, India, Pakistan and Indonesia all reaching record highs in May. We are revising our equity forecasts... 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Low food inflation keeps EM inflation near eight-year low Aggregate EM inflation remained close to an eight-year low in April, largely reflecting a slump in food inflation in major economies such as China and Brazil. While this weakness will soon reverse in... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Credit bubbles – where do the risks lie? We have been arguing for some time that Emerging Asia’s current credit binge is unsustainable, and that credit growth in a number of countries will need to slow for a crisis to be avoided... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand to keep rates on prolonged hold With the economy gaining momentum and price pressure benign, it was no surprise that the Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate on hold at 1.50% today. Looking ahead, we expect the BoT to keep... 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Indonesia S&P upgrade long overdue The decision on Friday by the rating agency, S&P, to upgrade Indonesia to investment grade rating was long overdue. At under 30% of GDP, Indonesia has one of the lowest levels of government debt in... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Trend still towards looser monetary policy The overall trend in EMs has remained towards looser monetary policy in recent months, with more EM central banks cutting interest rates than hiking them. But significant divergences exist at a... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
