Asia Economics Weekly Thailand’s truce breaks down, Asia’s central banks start to shift stance Paetongtarn Shinawatra is the third member of her family to serve as Thailand’s prime minister. Both her father and her aunt then went into exile. Events over the past two weeks will give investors no... 16th August 2024 · 9 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Malaysia GDP (Q2, second estimate) The second estimate of Q2 GDP confirmed that Malaysia’s economy accelerated sharply but, with inflation set to jump, commodity prices likely to decline and the boost from tourism set to fade, we still... 16th August 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Focus How to fix China’s property destocking scheme The property support measures included in yesterday’s stimulus announcement won’t be enough to drive a turnaround in the housing market. In a detailed analysis of the government’s property destocking... 16th August 2024 · 18 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Structural boost outweighing cyclical drag on exports EM goods export growth has accelerated over the past year despite a slowdown in economic growth in DMs. We think this is being driven by three structural factors: Chinese overcapacity, the AI... 15th August 2024 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Jul. 2024) After slowing in Q2, economic momentum appears to have stabilised somewhat last month, with a pick-up in consumer spending and services activity largely offsetting a slowdown in investment and... 15th August 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.) Broad credit growth ticked up in July, while bank loan growth only slowed a touch. (See Chart 1.) We expect a continued acceleration in government bond issuance to support a further expansion of... 13th August 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Questions for the RBI in the rupee’s decline The rupee was one of only a few currencies to weaken against the dollar this week. Could a lack of investor confidence in the currency pose problems in the months ahead for the RBI? 9th August 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update What to make of the latest moves in EM currencies Heightened US recession worries have helped unwound some of the stretched positions in high-carry EM currencies, resulting in their exchange rates moving closer to their “fair values” (judging by our... 9th August 2024 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Jul. 2024) Consumer price inflation ticked up in July, but this was entirely due to a weather-related rise in food price inflation. Producer price deflation was unchanged. While a ramp-up in fiscal spending... 9th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly US growth worries, BSP’s close call, Bangladesh turmoil Our US team believe that while a soft landing for the US economy is still the most likely outcome, the risk of a hard landing has risen. Vietnam stands out as the most vulnerable country in Asia to a... 9th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update East Asian equities could outperform again before long Equity markets in East Asia suffered very sharp declines earlier this week, but have generally recovered since. We think the rebound has scope to go a lot further as recession fears in the US prove... 9th August 2024 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC to remain timid despite renminbi turnaround The recent batch of weaker-than-expected US data and resulting global market fallout hasn’t significantly altered China’s economic outlook. While US recession risks have risen somewhat, a soft landing... 8th August 2024 · 7 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: The timing of Asian rate cuts and the impact of global markets volatility 1723620600 Even as most EM central banks outside of Asia started lowering interest rates a year ago, those within the region have kept their powder dry. That could be about to change.
Asia Rapid Response Philippines GDP (Q2, 2024) The economy slowed sharply in Q2 and we expect below trend growth to persist over the rest of the year as tight monetary policy, slower growth in remittances and soft export demand weigh on activity... 8th August 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Jul. 2024) Growth in export values slowed last month, but this was mainly due to lower export prices. Export volumes remained near record highs. We expect outbound shipments to stay strong for a while, not least... 7th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bangladesh: the economic fallout from the unrest The outbreak of political violence and the sudden resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has rocked Bangladesh today. But provided that peace and stability is restored relatively soon, the... 5th August 2024 · 3 mins read
