Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q3) The Philippines’ economy strengthened further in Q3, with growth coming in at 6.9% y/y. However, we expect the economy to slow next year. Although exports and government spending are likely to remain... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Learning the lessons from Fed-related sell-offs Periodic bouts of investor concern over Fed policy tightening appear to be having less and less effect on financial markets in EMs. That being said, the one consistent theme that emerges from our... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What does the latest spike in oil prices mean for EMs? The jump in oil prices over the past couple of weeks doesn’t radically alter the outlook for EMs. However, if sustained, it could exacerbate concerns we already have about some parts of the emerging... 13th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Trump still focusing on bilateral deficits EM exports look to have finished Q3 on a strong note, albeit with help from seasonal effects. Otherwise, a year on from Trump’s election, protectionist rhetoric is yet to result in material changes to... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Will regional trade agreements boost growth? Almost 10 months after Donald Trump pulled the US out of negotiations to set up the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), ministers from the remaining 11 countries are trying to salvage something from the... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct.) Our tracker suggests that EM capital outflows picked up to a nine month high in October. Even so, they remained weak by the standard of recent years. 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s central bank turns hawkish Malaysia’s central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% today, but the more hawkish tone of the statement suggests that monetary policy tightening may soon come back onto the agenda. We now... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Trump failing to deliver on protectionist threat One year on from his election, Donald Trump is struggling to live up to the promises he made on the campaign trail to get tough with countries that run big bilateral trade surpluses with the US... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thai rates to stay low Against a backdrop of robust growth and subdued inflation, today’s decision by the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to leave its key interest rate unchanged at 1.50% came as no surprise. The accompanying... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka’s central bank has little room for manoeuvre Sri Lanka’s central bank (CBSL) left rates on hold today, and the accompanying monetary policy statement supports our view that rate changes are not on the horizon. CBSL will be wary of hiking rates... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q3) The gentle acceleration in Indonesia’s GDP growth in the third quarter to 5.1%, from 5.0%, is unlikely to mark the start of a sustained recovery in the economy. Given the mounting headwinds facing the... 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What to expect from Trump’s Asia trip Donald Trump’s priority during his upcoming trip to Asia is likely to be drumming up support for his hard-line stance in dealing with North Korea. But while this means he is likely to go soft on his... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Powell nomination won't have big impact on EMs The nomination of Jerome Powell to be the next chair of the Fed doesn’t have significant implications for EMs. We think that the economic recovery is close to peaking in several emerging economies and... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing growth eases in October Our estimate of the aggregate Emerging Market manufacturing PMI suggests that manufacturing activity weakened at the start of the Q4. This slowdown appears to be broad-based across EM regions. 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Raising our Korea growth and interest rate forecasts China and South Korea’s decision to “reset” relations should provide a significant boost to Korea’s economy by bringing an end to China’s boycott of Korean goods as well as the clampdown on Chinese... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The October PMIs for Emerging Asia suggest that the region’s manufacturing sectors lost some momentum at the start of Q4. The headline readings for Korea and Taiwan – the two economies where the PMIs... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
