Emerging Markets Economics Update Impact of US auto tariffs limited to a few countries With the twists and turns in the US-China trade talks grabbing most of the headlines, the looming deadline for the decision on US auto tariffs as part of the Section 232 investigation has received... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Rising trade tensions and what they mean for EMs The latest increase in trade tensions between the US and China so far appears to have had a larger impact on EM currency markets than previous flare-ups in the trade war. But the impact of the latest... 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update The impact of the trade war on the rest of Asia The trade war between the US and China has so far had a very small impact on the rest of Asia, which has been dwarfed by the much bigger impact of the slowdown in global growth and the downturn in the... 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly More of the same in Indonesia, Thai election result In his first major policy speech since his re-election President Joko Widodo promised to press ahead with plans to boost infrastructure spending, reduce bureaucracy and open up the economy to foreign... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q1) Q1’s slump in GDP growth should be temporary, as it was mainly driven by budget delays. But hopes for a sustained rebound are likely to be disappointed. A tough external environment and the lagged... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM LC bonds unlikely to keep tracking US Treasuries While the average EM 10-year local currency sovereign bond yield has followed the equivalent US Treasury yield very closely recently, we doubt that this will last much longer. Indeed, we forecast that... 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Another cut likely in Malaysia before year-end With economic growth likely to remain weak throughout 2019, today’s 25bps rate cut by the central bank in Malaysia (BNM) is likely to be followed by further easing later in the year. 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q1) GDP growth in Indonesia has been suspiciously stable at around 5% over the past five years, and it was no surprise that it recorded another quarter of growth at close to this rate in the first quarter... 6th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Risks in the Philippines, Indonesia Activity Tracker The decision by the rating agency Standard & Poor’s to upgrade its long-term credit rating for the Philippines to BBB+ risks underplaying the country’s worsening external position as well as its... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing PMI falls back as BRICs falter The drop in the headline EM manufacturing PMI in April was driven by weaker surveys out of all four BRIC economies. The breakdown of Markit’s aggregate EM survey showed that the rebound in EM exports... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIS (Apr.) A slight improvement in the April PMIs fits with yesterday’s trade data from Korea in suggesting that the region’s economies have passed the worst. That said, we still expect regional growth to remain... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Four points on EM political risk premiums The key determinants of EM political risk premiums are the type of political shock and the strength of an economy’s external balance sheet. With this in mind, Ukraine and Argentina have the greatest... 1st May 2019 · 13 mins read
Asia Economics Update Is the worst now over for Korean exporters? The rebound in Korean exports in April, which was mainly due to a further recovery in demand for semi-conductors, supports our view that the worst is now over for the export sector and the broader... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Why does Indonesia want to move its capital city? There are good reasons why Indonesia wants to move its capital city away from Jakarta, but any move faces significant obstacles. The main reason for wanting to move is that Jakarta is sinking... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three key points on the latest EM currency “sell-off” The recent sell-off in EM currencies has grabbed the headlines but in truth, aside from the Argentine peso and Turkish lira, the moves have been relatively limited. This Update highlights three key... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM currency sell-off not a headwind to growth yet The sell-offs in the Argentine peso and Turkish lira have sparked fears of broader turmoil in EM financial markets. But, so far at least, this has yet to materialise. Sovereign dollar bond spreads... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
